So far it looks like we had a statewide turnout of 54%.
Here in Missoula, they’re way behind...despite having the majority of ballots on hand yesterday, when counting started.
Missoula’s gone through about three election administrators in as many years, so perhaps this has something to do with the abysmal performance of our elections office.
Maybe tonight they’ll be done. If not, maybe tomorrow. Who knows?
Anyways, let’s start at the top and make our way down the ballot in order of importance.
We saw 150,000 Democrats vote in the presidential primary, and 213,000 Republicans. This means Democrats need to come up with another 63,000 votes and they need to come up with them in just 152 days.
A whopping 38,000 Democrats found Biden to be so odious that they voted for Bernie or Liz Warren or just ‘no preference.’ The latter got over 4,200 votes.
I’m quite surprised by this! I mean...wasn’t it supposed to be Republicans voting for ‘anyone but?’
Well, just 13,000 Republicans voted ‘no preference’ in the GOP primary yesterday, compared to the nearly 200,000 that voted for Trump.
So here in Montana, Biden has two difficult tasks:
- First, he needs to figure out where he’s going to get an additional 63,000 votes to even match what Trump got yesterday.
- Second, he needs to figure out how to win over the 38,000 Democrats that didn’t want to vote for him.
If Biden can get every single one of those 38,000 Dems, he’ll still need to win over an additional 25,000 GOP, Independent, or just sitting-on-the-sidelines Dems.
That’s a helluva uphill battle for a man that’s losing his mind, and one with hardly any campaign structure in the state to boot.
Bullock got 145,000 votes yesterday compared to the 192,000 that Daines did.
No other candidates were factors in this race, with nearly 7,000 Dems choosing someone besides Bullock, and 26,000 choosing someone other than Daines.
Bullock appears to have a more unified Party behind him going into November compared to Daines.
But even with that, Daines still picked up 47,000 more votes than Bullock did, and I’m confident that 90% of the primary voters that didn’t go for Daines will go for him in November.
I’m also confident Bullock will pull in the 7,000 that didn’t vote for him in the primary...but where are the other 40,000 votes gonna come from?
A further hiccup is the fact that the Dems’ favored Green Party candidate did not win, and the ‘disgruntled-with-Bullock candidate’ - Wendie Fredrickson - did win. She only got 500 votes (700 in the Green primary altogether), but who knows...maybe that’ll be enough to ruin this race for Bullock in November (there is no Libertarian candidate).
Tom Winter got creamed by Kathleen Williams, as everyone was expecting. I personally figure that Winter was frustrated by his last term in the legislature, realizing how inconsequential Democrats are in that Republican body.
But quitting is for quitters. Instead of quitting, why not run for an office I have no chance of winning, with the added caveat that it’ll boost my name in my adoptive state?
So that’s what Winter did, and it didn’t work out. His time in Montana politics is now over.
Williams got 133,000 votes and Winter got 15,000 and I think Kathleen will pick up Winter’s votes in November quite easily.
But where’s she gonna get another 67,000 votes?
That’s how many more voters voted in the GOP primary than the Dem primary for U.S. House.
Rosendale won it easily, with 104,000 votes. Staplelton was the only nearest competitor, with 71,000 votes. Stapleton’s time in Montana politics is now over until he runs again in 2022.
I don’t think the Green Party will be a factor in this race in the slightest.
148,000 voted in the Dem primary compared to the 222,000 that voted in the GOP primary.
This means Dems need to come up with an additional 74,000 votes in this race if they want to win in November.
Chances are good that so much time and attention and money will be directed toward Bullock’s Senate race that Cooney won’t win. Cooney’s greatest hope of winning is riding coattails, mainly those of Bullock who’ll be riding those of Biden.
67,000 people voted for Cooney’s opponent, while 123,000 voted for Gianforte’s opponents. This is what Democrats will latch onto to tell you that Gianforte has no chance.
Perhaps there’s some truth in that, and if so, Dems need to exploit it.
It’s just that in 2018, Gianforte got more votes than any other candidate running a statewide race. And I don’t see many of those 123,000 ‘anti-Gianforte’ GOP voters voting Dem, or sitting on the sideline.
They’ll swallow their pride and do the right thing: they’ll vote for Gianforte.
Dems picked up 130,000 votes to the GOP’s 196,000. The Dems need to find 66,000 votes to win this office in November, and I don’t think that’s going to happen.
Dems picked up 140,000 votes compared with the 194,000 the GOP picked up, meaning Dems need to find 64,000 votes to win this race in November.
I wish Bennion would have won on the GOP side, but the truth is he ran a weak campaign. No yard signs...no radio ads...no meet-and-greets - just Facebook.
Hell, when I emailed his campaign website back in April...he didn’t even bother to reply.
So now Knudsen is the candidate, and he’ll be going against Graybill, who’s running on his family name and the entitlement it portends.
There is a Green Party candidate in this race, but chances are good that in November I’ll just leave this one blank. I don’t see any reason to vote for either of these men.
Dems got 127,000 votes in this race compared to the 194,000 the GOP picked up. Dems need to find 67,000 more voters by November to win this.
I don’t see how they can do that. They have probably the weakest of all the statewide candidates in Morigeau, a man that no one outside of Missoula has ever heard of...and most people living here have never heard of him, either.
Troy Downing has been bloodied in battle before at the statewide level, and I suspect he and his out-of-state PACs will have an easy time steamrolling over Morigeau all through the summer and fall and into election day.
OPI was the only bright spot for Dems going into this cycle...and then Romano’s husband got caught with a medicine cabinet of illegal drugs and her chances decreased big time.
But maybe she still has a shot.
Dems picked up 132,000 votes in this race compared to the 177,000 the GOP got, meaning they ‘only’ need to find 45,000 votes to win this one, making it one of their ‘easier’ uphill battles.
Arntzen’s problem is that she’s incredibly unpopular with her fellow Republicans. Oh, they’ll vote for her...they just won’t give her money. I’m not sure her husband’s clout - he heads up the state’s gaming lobby - will be enough to carry her through.
In Missoula we have this race, and the GOP got about 4,000 more votes than the Dems.
I don’t think Dems have a chance at any PSC seats as those lines were gerrymandered by Fred Thomas years ago so Dems are simply unable to win.
There’s no point in discussing this, as we all know both chambers will stay firmly in the GOP’s hands come January.
Here’s where the Dems need to find votes:
- Governor: 74,000
- House: 67,000
- Auditor: 67,000
- SoS: 66,000
- AG: 64,000
- President: 63,000
- Senate: 47,000
- OPI: 45,000
As you can see, Dems’ greatest shot at winning a statewide race is OPI. Despite that, I suspect this race will get little attention in the media and the candidates won’t be able to raise much money because of this.
All the air will be taken by Bullock and his national Dem cheer squad. That race is the second most likely to flip for the Dems, but not without an expensive fight.
I just don’t see AG, SoS, or Auditor going for Dems. There’s no enough excitement over these rather lackluster candidates for them to find another 64,000 to 67,000 votes.
House could flip. Kathleen Williams is a fighter and a workhorse. Sadly, Bullock and his D.C. goons will take most of the attention and money away from her. Bullock is so ego-driven that other people and their races don’t matter; just himself.
If Dems aren’t going to find 67,000 votes to take back most of the statewides, where are they gonna find the 74,000 votes they need to keep the governor’s office?
They’re not. At least with Whitney, Dems had a fighter that wasn’t afraid to take off the kid gloves. With Cooney they just have a tired old man that’s too timid to put up his dukes.
And you’re gonna run that against a bodyslammer?
Trump is going to win Montana.
Will he win the rest of the nation?
I don’t know.
Last week I would have said ‘no,’ but this week I don’t see how he can lose. He’s a law and order president at a time when honest, hardworking Americans are seeing their stores looted and burned.
Hard workers vote; looters do not.
Unless something changes, Trump’s on an easy course for a second term.
But you know what? So much is changing each week that anything could happen.
152 days to go. It’s gonna get bumpy.