The next campaign finance filing deadline for Montana candidates happens on January 5.
At that point we’ll have a better idea of how the various statewide candidates are doing, and what their chances in June are.
Nationally, the candidates running for president won’t need to file their next quarterly report until April 15...though beginning in January they do have to start filing monthly reports, beginning on the 20th of each month.
Currently Trump has raised $165 million. The various clown car Democrats have raised $476 million between themselves. Bernie Sanders is leading the pack, with $74 million.
Pocahontas is next with $60 million and Mayor Pete has $51 million. Poor Tulsi only has $9 million. The rich, buy-the-election-guys Yang and Steyer have $15 million and $49 million, respectively.
When we turn our attention to Congress we see that Nancy Pelosi has raised $3.7 million for her reelection bid, while AOC has $3.5 million. Adam Schiff has raised $4.3 million.
The leading Republican fundraisers in the House are Steve Scalise, with $8.8 million, and Devin Nunes, with $5.6 million.
For the Senate, the leading fundraiser is Rick Scott, with $85 million so far. Our own Jon Tester has $20 million socked-away so far, though I suspect most of that is leftover from last year.
Of course, nothing is helping candidates raise money as much as this impeachment stir is.
In the 72 hours after Pelosi announced her impeachment plan in September, various GOP candidates around the country managed to raise $15 million. In November alone, Trump raised nearly $21 million.
So far Trump and the RNC have spent $11 million to target vulnerable Democrats running for Congress. Much of this is happening in the swing states, like Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Wisconsin, where 51% of voters disapprove of impeachment (44% support).
Dems in those states know that impeachment is poison. The Democratic outfit Priorities USA is spending $100 million on anti-Trump ads this cycle, yet not a single one of those ads will focus on impeachment.
Many Democratic operatives that make their money off of other people’s donations know that Trump is doing well, and that the current environment doesn’t support his removal, via impeachment or through the ballot box. Here’s how the LA Times put it recently:
“His dismal job performance ratings have changed little since impeachment began. The economy keeps humming. A significant trade deal was just inked. The courts are being reshaped in Trump’s image as White House judicial nominees cruise to confirmation.”
It’s going to be very hard for Democrats to run against that, both nationally and here in Montana.
James Conner tracks the approval rating numbers, and told us two days ago that while 51% of Americans support impeaching Trump nationally, here in Montana that’s probably not the case, as he won the state in ‘16 with 56% of the vote, and will likely pick up 88% of the GOP primary voters next June (Pocahontas is leading the Dems in Montana, with 44% support for the June Primary).
“These numbers should worry Montana’s Democrats,” Conner tells us. “Unless public support for Trump collapses, and it might, Republicans will be in a very good position to win all statewide election in Montana in 2020.”
There are 165 days until the June Primary, and a lot could change between now and then. Our primary is so late in the cycle that it’s a good bet most of the 15 Democratic candidates still left will be winnowed down to three or four by then.
I think many Democratic voters in this state are worried, not only by the prospect of Trump’s coattails sweeping so many GOPers into office, but also by the simply unelectable candidates running in so many of our statewide races.
- For instance, we have Melissa Romano as the only Dem candidate for OPI, and her husband has a smorgasbord of drug problems that will dominate the news about her campaign.
- For SoS, the Dems have just one candidate, and it’s a gay man from Missoula. I fail to see how he’s going to beat any of the four GOP candidates currently running. I personally believe his bid has more to do with impressing the Democratic fundraising/GOTV outfits located on the West Coast than it does with impressing Montana voters. At least that way he’ll have a job lined up come January 2021 when his bid fails.
- State Auditor is another incredibly weak race for the Dems, with single-term legislator Shane Morigeau the only candidate so far. He’s also from Missoula, and taking on out-of-stater Troy Downing and some woman named Nelly Nicol.
Democrats need to do some serious soul searching. If they do so, they’ll realize that these three candidates don’t stand a chance winning against their GOP opponents, not when Trump is going to carry them through via his coattails.
All of these folks are incredibly weak candidates. Unless serious primary challengers appear before the March filing deadline, these races are lost to Dems.
Dems have about 90 days to find viable candidates for these races.
The clock is ticking.