We have about a year and a week to go until the 2020 elections.
Excited yet?
Well, if you are...then you’re definitely in a very, very small minority of this country and this state.
Many people are dreading ‘em, though I think a far greater number simply do not care.
Indifference: the opposite of eternal vigilance, which is the price of liberty.
Today I took the liberty of visiting each of our 2020 Montana candidates’ social media accounts to see who’s the most popular, who’s winning.
Yep, we all know if you’re winning on social media you’ll win this time next year.
I mean...we’re not stupid. We know how the world works.
So let’s dig into it.
Excited yet?
Well, if you are...then you’re definitely in a very, very small minority of this country and this state.
Many people are dreading ‘em, though I think a far greater number simply do not care.
Indifference: the opposite of eternal vigilance, which is the price of liberty.
Today I took the liberty of visiting each of our 2020 Montana candidates’ social media accounts to see who’s the most popular, who’s winning.
Yep, we all know if you’re winning on social media you’ll win this time next year.
I mean...we’re not stupid. We know how the world works.
So let’s dig into it.
Senate
Steve Daines: Our junior senator has four social media accounts. His senatorial facebook account has 16,000 likes and 28,000 followers. His election account has 12,000 likes and the same number following. His personal Twitter account has 53,000 followers and his Team Daines election account has 3,000 followers.
Wilmot Collins: The mayor of Helena has three social media accounts. His senatorial run account on Facebook has about 7,000 likes and just as many followers. I can’t tell how many friends he has on his personal Facebook account as I’m not a member of Facebook and therefore can’t see that info. On Twitter, Collins has 8,500 followers. His most popular tweet has 2,000 likes on it.
John Mues: This candidate has 965 likes on his Facebook page, and nearly 1,000 people following that account. On Twitter he has nearly 2,000 followers. His most popular tweet over the past month had 59 likes on it.
Cora Nuemann: This candidate from Bozeman has a personal Facebook page, but she doesn’t have a candidate page. I have no idea why. On Twitter she has 534 followers. Her most popular tweet for October got 85 likes. I don’t understand the rationale behind this candidacy. Before this month, she sent out two tweets this year, five tweets in 2018, two in 2017, and a few dozen in 2016. Either Nuemann has been scrubbing her social accounts, or she was never that much into social media to begin with.
Wilmot Collins: The mayor of Helena has three social media accounts. His senatorial run account on Facebook has about 7,000 likes and just as many followers. I can’t tell how many friends he has on his personal Facebook account as I’m not a member of Facebook and therefore can’t see that info. On Twitter, Collins has 8,500 followers. His most popular tweet has 2,000 likes on it.
John Mues: This candidate has 965 likes on his Facebook page, and nearly 1,000 people following that account. On Twitter he has nearly 2,000 followers. His most popular tweet over the past month had 59 likes on it.
Cora Nuemann: This candidate from Bozeman has a personal Facebook page, but she doesn’t have a candidate page. I have no idea why. On Twitter she has 534 followers. Her most popular tweet for October got 85 likes. I don’t understand the rationale behind this candidacy. Before this month, she sent out two tweets this year, five tweets in 2018, two in 2017, and a few dozen in 2016. Either Nuemann has been scrubbing her social accounts, or she was never that much into social media to begin with.
House
Matt Rosendale: Our Commissioner has four social media accounts. His main Facebook page has 28,000 likes and 27,000 followers. His State Auditor page has 1,400 likes and the same number of followers. On Twitter, Rosendale has 12,500 followers on his personal account and 1,100 on his state feed. Matt’s most popular tweet his month got 38 likes. He got over 700 likes on an endorsement photo he put up on Facebook this month.
Corey Stapleton: I could not find a personal or professional Facebook account for our current Secretary of State. On Twitter, Stapleton has just 765 followers. He sent out two tweets this month. One of them got five likes.
Debra Lamm: The former rep of HD 60 has 166 likes on her congressional Facebook page, and about as many followers. On Twitter she has 501 followers. Her candidate announcement tweet in September got three likes.
Joe Dooling: This Helenan has about 750 likes on his candidate Facebook page and 17 followers on his candidate Twitter account.
Tim Johnson: This Corvallis Republican has 68 likes on his Facebook page and 5 followers on Twitter.
Kathleen Williams: This woman has 9,200 likes on Facebook and a similar number of followers. She got 622 likes on a post earlier this month. On Twitter she has nearly 3,800 followers. Her most popular post got 74 likes. Interestingly, the most popular posts on each network are different.
Tom Winter: This HD 96 rep has 1,925 likes on his Facebook page and nearly 2,000 followers. On Twitter he has 1,900 followers. His most popular tweet this month got 43 likes.
Matt Rains: This guy has 980 likes on Facebook and his Twitter feed has 200 followers.
Corey Stapleton: I could not find a personal or professional Facebook account for our current Secretary of State. On Twitter, Stapleton has just 765 followers. He sent out two tweets this month. One of them got five likes.
Debra Lamm: The former rep of HD 60 has 166 likes on her congressional Facebook page, and about as many followers. On Twitter she has 501 followers. Her candidate announcement tweet in September got three likes.
Joe Dooling: This Helenan has about 750 likes on his candidate Facebook page and 17 followers on his candidate Twitter account.
Tim Johnson: This Corvallis Republican has 68 likes on his Facebook page and 5 followers on Twitter.
Kathleen Williams: This woman has 9,200 likes on Facebook and a similar number of followers. She got 622 likes on a post earlier this month. On Twitter she has nearly 3,800 followers. Her most popular post got 74 likes. Interestingly, the most popular posts on each network are different.
Tom Winter: This HD 96 rep has 1,925 likes on his Facebook page and nearly 2,000 followers. On Twitter he has 1,900 followers. His most popular tweet this month got 43 likes.
Matt Rains: This guy has 980 likes on Facebook and his Twitter feed has 200 followers.
Governor
Greg Gianforte: Our lone representative has four social media accounts. His personal Facebook account has 18,000 likes and 19,000 followers. His congressional account has the same number of likes and 23,000 followers. On Twitter, Greg has 8,600 followers on his personal account and 4,400 followers on the account he used in 2016-17. As far as I can tell, Gianforte has not wasted any time on Twitter since June.
Tim Fox: Our AG has an AG Facebook account and it has about 4,000 likes and followers. On Twitter, Fox’s governor run account has 257 followers and his personal, AG account has 3,700 followers. His most popular tweet in October got 46 likes.
Al Olszewski: On Facebook, the good doctor has about 3,800 likes and followers. On Twitter he has 444 people following one account and another 100 following the account that I think he’s using this cycle. Both accounts are about the same, so maybe time to consolidate. He got 11 likes on one tweet.
Mike Cooney: Our Lieutenant Governor has his official state Facebook account, which has 650 likes and 750 followers. His gubernatorial run Facebook page has 3,100 likes and as many followers. On Twitter, Mike has about 1,000 followers on his state account and 400 on the account he’s running on. He got 51 likes on a tweet this month.
Whitney Williams: This woman has nearly 800 likes on her candidate Facebook page and as many followers. On Twitter she has 900 followers and her most popular tweet this month got 66 likes. Before this month, she hadn’t sent out a tweet since June. Now’s the time to go over her account before she scrubs it, though it probably already has been.
Casey Schreiner: This rep from HD 26 has 1,350 likes on his Facebook page and about 1,400 followers. On Twitter he has nearly 1,300 followers. His most popular tweet this month got 15 likes. Nearly 200 have liked the announcement post he put up in June.
Reilly Neill: This woman has 360 likes on her Facebook page and about as many followers. On Twitter she has 300 followers.
Tim Fox: Our AG has an AG Facebook account and it has about 4,000 likes and followers. On Twitter, Fox’s governor run account has 257 followers and his personal, AG account has 3,700 followers. His most popular tweet in October got 46 likes.
Al Olszewski: On Facebook, the good doctor has about 3,800 likes and followers. On Twitter he has 444 people following one account and another 100 following the account that I think he’s using this cycle. Both accounts are about the same, so maybe time to consolidate. He got 11 likes on one tweet.
Mike Cooney: Our Lieutenant Governor has his official state Facebook account, which has 650 likes and 750 followers. His gubernatorial run Facebook page has 3,100 likes and as many followers. On Twitter, Mike has about 1,000 followers on his state account and 400 on the account he’s running on. He got 51 likes on a tweet this month.
Whitney Williams: This woman has nearly 800 likes on her candidate Facebook page and as many followers. On Twitter she has 900 followers and her most popular tweet this month got 66 likes. Before this month, she hadn’t sent out a tweet since June. Now’s the time to go over her account before she scrubs it, though it probably already has been.
Casey Schreiner: This rep from HD 26 has 1,350 likes on his Facebook page and about 1,400 followers. On Twitter he has nearly 1,300 followers. His most popular tweet this month got 15 likes. Nearly 200 have liked the announcement post he put up in June.
Reilly Neill: This woman has 360 likes on her Facebook page and about as many followers. On Twitter she has 300 followers.
Conclusion
Well...I think we know who’s going to win next year.
Daines will easily take the Senate race. He has the most followers that he can get his message out to. He spent years building this up, first with a 2008 run for second fiddle to Brown, and then in ‘12 for Congress. He also has the most money raised so far, by far.
Rosendale has three times as many followers on social media as Kathleen Williams does. Both have similar totals in the bank right now. Rosendale has a huge edge here with the number of people he can get his message out to. Trump will be a huge help to him when he visits next year as well. I don’t think Williams will do any better than she did last year: 46%, or about 230,000 votes.
The governor’s race is Gianforte’s to lose. I feel he’ll be uber-disciplined, and won’t make any mistakes on social media...mostly because he’s not using it. His competitors don’t even come close to matching the social reach that he currently has, and I don’t feel they’ll get any closer. We will see his competitors waste tens of thousands of dollars on Facebook, however, thinking this will help them win. Don’t they know that no one looks at those ads? Dems and Tim Fox have few ideas besides this. Like I said, it’s GG’s to lose.
Daines will easily take the Senate race. He has the most followers that he can get his message out to. He spent years building this up, first with a 2008 run for second fiddle to Brown, and then in ‘12 for Congress. He also has the most money raised so far, by far.
Rosendale has three times as many followers on social media as Kathleen Williams does. Both have similar totals in the bank right now. Rosendale has a huge edge here with the number of people he can get his message out to. Trump will be a huge help to him when he visits next year as well. I don’t think Williams will do any better than she did last year: 46%, or about 230,000 votes.
The governor’s race is Gianforte’s to lose. I feel he’ll be uber-disciplined, and won’t make any mistakes on social media...mostly because he’s not using it. His competitors don’t even come close to matching the social reach that he currently has, and I don’t feel they’ll get any closer. We will see his competitors waste tens of thousands of dollars on Facebook, however, thinking this will help them win. Don’t they know that no one looks at those ads? Dems and Tim Fox have few ideas besides this. Like I said, it’s GG’s to lose.
