The polls focus on four states – North Carolina, Florida, Virginia and Colorado.
Here’s what they tell us:
- North Carolina: Hillary 45%, Trump 36%, Johnson 9%, Stein 2%
- Florida: Hillary 41%, Trump 36%, Johnson, 9%, Stein 4%
- Virginia: Hillary: 43%, Trump 31%, Johnson 12%, Stein 5%
- Colorado: Hillary 41%, Trump 29%, Johnson 15%, Stein 6%
When we average those numbers out we get the following:
- Hillary: 42.5%
- Trump: 33%
- Johnson: 11.2%
- Stein: 4.2%
That means we have 15.4% of voters saying they’d rather just skip the two parties this year, and that doesn’t even count all those that won’t vote.
Let’s say we split that third-party vote and gave it equally to both Hillary and Trump.
Then it’d be 50% to 40% come November, Hillary winning.
Please remember, these 4 polls asked just 862 voters in Florida, 897 in Virginia, 899 in Colorado, and 921 in North Carolina.
In North Carolina that makes up 0.009% of the state’s population.
If we take a look at the August 12-13 Zogby poll that asked 1,277 people who they’re voting for we see this:
- Hillary: 38%
- Trump: 36%
- Johnson: 8%
- Stein: 5%
- Not Sure: 13%
So right away we see that 26% of the people polled are going to go third party or they just don’t know.
Many in the corporate media are saying the Khan family and Trump’s response to them is the main reason for his current drop in the polls.
Despite that, we’re told in an August 3 Morning Consult poll that the Khan family debacle will get Trump 28% more votes from Republicans, 14% more votes from registered voters, 9% more votes from Independents, and 6% more votes from Democrats.
So he gets some more support, but not as much as he loses.
Still, a whopping 49% of Republicans say the Khan family debacle “doesn’t change’ the way they’ll vote. Independents say the same at a rate of 45% and Democrats are at 32% there.
We can already tell that the media’s lack of an attention span has put that story on the back burner, and soon it’ll be gone entirely.
That same poll also tells us that 30% of Independents support a “temporary ban on all Muslims immigrating” to the US, as well as 22% of Democrats. 73% of Republicans support it.
Despite that support from Dems on blocking Muslims, Hillary wants to up the number of Syrian families coming to the US next year from 10,000 to 65,000.
Project Five Thirty Eight gives us an updated poll today telling us that Hillary will take 47.9% of the popular vote compared to Trump’s 41.2%.
Gary Johnson is taking 9.6% there.
Remember, Johnson has to get 15% in a poll in order to qualify for the debates.
So you might as well write-off Johnson and Stein now, as that’s what our current two-party fuck-fest wants.
We know that Johnson has raised $2.9 million this month alone, and I give him the best shot at getting into a debate…though I would be very surprised if he pulls it off.
The corporate establishment saw the disaster Perot brought about in ’92 after he was let into the debates.
They won’t make that mistake again, the Commission will ensure it.
It’s very important to the Commission on Presidential Debates to keep Johnson and Stein out of the debates.
They set up the 15% rule in 2000, and no third party has ever gotten that much.
The Commission likes it that way.
Remember, the Commission is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, and we should always be wary of those groups when they’re involved in politics…as I wrote on MT Cowturd over 2 years ago now.
The Commission has been around since 1987 and is currently headed up by Frank Fahrenkopf, and I’m sure he’s about as rich and connected as they come.
Fahrenkopf was instrumental in winning Nevada for Nixon in 1972.
Yes, another relic of a bygone era…one we should be forgetting.
Anyways, getting back to the polls we see that on August 14 USA Today told us that millennials are coming out in droves to support Hillary.
For those under the age of 35, they support Hillary 56% to Trump’s 20%.
Also, 29% of this age group identifies with a third party or just doesn’t like political parties in general.
The poll asked 1,539 people over August 5-10, so take that for what you will.
We’re also told that there are 75.4 million millennials in the country, compared to 74.9 million Baby Boomers.
RealClear Politics has another poll, one that averages out all the other polls.
It has Hillary at 47.7% and Trump at 41%.
If we want to get an idea on the Montana races we’re pretty much shit out of luck.
I feel that groups here don’t want to do polling, as either side will see results they don’t really want to see.
All we have to go on are the primary numbers, which we can put into percentages like so:
Gianforte’s 50.1% to Bullock’s 49.9%
Stapleton’s 55% to Lindeen’s 45%
Fox’s 58% to Jent’s 42%
Rosendale’s 56% to Laslovich’s 44%
Arntzen’s 56% to Romano’s 44%
Zinke’s 56% to Juneau’s 44%
There are now 82 days to the election, a very long time.
Anything could happen, anything.