Montana Governor Steve Bullock goes into the 2016 election cycle feeling pretty good. There’s no real challenger, because Gianforte and his mega-money have decided to sit this one out. Sure, the rich software developer is going to donate to everyone with an (R) behind their name, but at least he won’t be running.
Bullock does quite well in the primary, earning 75% or more to whatever opponent decides to give him a paper tiger challenge. Most likely this challenger would have been decided upon by the corporate-controlled, Back East-directed Montana Democratic Party. That individual will no doubt be rewarded four years later with some plum position of their own.
Come the general, Bullock does quite well, picking up 56% to 43% with 1% going to some third-party candidate. Yep, he’s got his next four years, his legacy, and…what?
Well, we know he’s got two more legislatures in that case, and it’s likely he’ll do the same as he did in 2015 – rub the bankers’ back while racking up as much interest debt as he can for Montana’s kids to pay off in another 10 or 20 years.
Because he’ll do such a good job with that, Bullock will be given the race against Steve Daines in 2020 for the U.S. Senate seat that never should have been lost. It was lost because of Bullock’s incompetence in choosing Walsh, and then in the Montana Democratic Party's incompetence at not supporting Amanda Curtis.
I’m not sure who will win that race, but I’ll give it to Daines. Why?
- First, Daines is the incumbent and he’ll have several million dollars built up by 2018 to run again.
- Next, whoever will be president in 2016 will be coming up for reelection in 2020. Will they be popular enough for either one of these two to ride their coattails on into Congress? It’s impossible to tell at this point, but the mid-term shakeup would have already occurred, as the money expected, so the real guns will be brought out in ’20.
- Finally, the face and body of the Montana Democratic Party could have changed by that point, and Bullock may not be chosen. The Montana Democratic Party might have leaders by that point, individuals that know “waiting in line” is not a strategy for winning.
Steve Bullock will be the first Montana Governor to sit on the Montana Supreme Court since John Bonner did so in 1968. I doubt he’ll be like one of our many governors that went back and served in the legislature. Governor Sam Stewart was one, who went to that body for the first time in 1930 (he was also appointed to the Montana Supreme Court, in 1932).
I think it’s a shame more former politicians don’t go to the legislature. It’d do a lot to get over the inexperience that term limits impart, don’t you think? It’d sure make people interested in politics as well. Can you imagine Brian Schweitzer in the Montana Legislature in 2017? Wow, people would love it and they’d pay attention for a change.
I think it’s likely if Bullock doesn’t win the U.S. Senate in 2020 he’ll be appointed to the Montana Supreme Court. I think that’s very likely. Of course, that requires a Democrat to be in office sometime in the 2020s.
Montana Governor Steve Bullock goes into the 2016 primary season a bit unsure of himself. He’s only been able to raise $500,000 so far, and there are a lot of rumors that Gianforte will get into the race.
Something happens, something over fall or winter that causes Gianforte to change his mind. Perhaps Montana Cowgirl finally pushes him too far. Or it could be that someone else comes up, someone that people get excited about, and Gianforte throws his money behind.
Steve Bullock and the Montana Democratic Party will be forced on the defensive. No dissent will be tolerated, no off-message messages will be allowed. Democrats will be turned off in droves as a military-like mobilization strategy develops to get Bullock reelected. Coupled with the Hillary-Jeb deal and turnout is abysmal, both in Montana and nationally.
While it’s true that 72% of Montanans turned out in 2012 and 74% did so in 2008, I’m not sure we’ll see the same enthusiasm for Hillary. Republicans will turnout in droves. Democrats, however, will likely have numbers more in line with the 55% turnout of 2014 or the 56% turnout of 2010. Remember…there’s nothing to get excited about if you’re a young Democrat, a swing voter, or someone that thinks this country’s messed up.
Let me say it again: Democrats have nothing to get excited about! Hillary is turning off Democrats, not convincing swing voters to turn out. Bullock will be chomping at the bit over this, but there’s nothing he can do.
And then the rain comes. Tuesday November 8, 2016, is raining cats and dogs. Tens of thousands stay home, driving turnout numbers down just like what happened in Montana in the 1945 Special U.S. House election. Bullock loses the race in a huge upset, and many other states experience the same as Jeb sweeps into the White House on a wave of anti-Hillary dissent, led largely by disaffected Democrats and now permanent stay-at-homers.
Gianforte, or whoever, enters the Governor’s Office in January and Bullock is relegated to his one term. There will be no 2020 Senate race, and any chances at that Supreme Court seat will come about now because of pity, not because of accomplishment. One-term governors have no accomplishments, they have liabilities.
I’m not confident about Steve Bullock’s chances in 2016 because there’s nothing to get excited about.
How is Steve Bullock going to help me and my family? He’s not.
- I’m not a rich banker.
- I’m not a Washington, D.C.-based law firm alum of his, like from Steptoe & Johnson.
- I’m not a faculty member, nor did I ever go to, the George Washington University School of Law.
- I don’t have connections to the healthcare industry through my wife.
Sometimes I wonder why I wrote this March 12 letter to the Missoulian called Democrats: Important to stay loyal to governor. We saw last time that Bullock will rack up $67 million in interest debt that my son will have to pay off. That doesn’t help me or my son, just the rich bankers that have Bullock in their pocket.
We saw in the 2015 session that Bullock could not get Early Edge childhood education. That would have really helped me, but he gave up on it. He never gave up on getting those banker’s their interest, however. He’s always looking out for the banker’s interest. Your kids? Not so much.
Those are two incidents that hurt me. I'm sure there are more, and the Montana GOP will let you know what they are. I'll let you know what they are.
But…wouldn’t having a Republican in the Governor’s Office hurt me more?
How is a Republican going to hurt me? I mean, we already see that the Democrats aren’t helping me…how could a GOPer be worse?
I’m not convinced they would be, and Democrats have not made that case, to me or Montana. I don’t own property, I don’t have a good job…my life sucks. Lots of people in Montana are just like me. What is there to get excited about…how will my life get better…what have you done for me lately?
What has Bullock done for me? One of the main arguments on why he should be elected is because of what he won’t do for you – he won’t allow crazy Tea Party Republicans to take charge with their agenda.
So the whole 2016 Bullock campaign message is one of fear – vote for me or those crazy loons will get in.
Steve Bullock is no Brian Schweitzer, and I’m not sure that message will resonate. It won’t get people impassioned, that’s for sure. And that’s why Bullock has to raise so much money – the passion’s not there, just the purse strings...sort of.
Just like 1946, however, there’s fire on the left.
I’m not confident about the Montana 2016 Gubernatorial Race…I’m not confident I’ll vote for that one. I may leave it blank.