I’ll also give you some new insight into stories that are big in the local media today.
Let’s get started.
Uncle Joe’s Happy Hands
It’ll be fun to watch how Democrats reconcile Joe Biden’s touchy-feely approach with their own embrasure of the #MeTooMovement.
We already see Nancy Pelosi saying Joe’s touch-based approach doesn’t disqualify him for a presidential run, but that he should respect people’s personal spaces.
Mostly, Joe Biden is from a different generation.
The touch-based approach is accepted by a lot of the older Baby Boomers. I remember as a kid in Helena Middle School, lots of teachers would come up behind you and put their hands on your shoulders as they asked you a question or whatnot.
Some would comment on this, saying it’s their approach and to mention if you feel uncomfortable.
I just don’t think it’s a huge big deal, and I don’t think it’ll be an issue for Biden.
But we said the same thing when the Al Franken news first broke. I suspect more women will come forward with their own ‘happy-hands’ Biden stories.
If they’re the same as the stories we’re heard now, this will blow over and Biden will have a good shot at winning a lot of primaries.
If the stories have more to them, then Uncle Joe might be done as a public figure.
2020 and the Money
How’s the money game in the 2020 presidential race, so far?
Well, Bernie Sanders has $18.2 million so far, while Kamala Harris has $12 million. Whoever the hell this guy Buttigieg is has $7 million.
Pocahontas only has $300,000. Trump pretty much did her in after she did herself in.
Bernie has more cash on hand than he’s raised, due to his 2016 run. He has $28 million in the bank right now, compared to the $19 million Trump has in the bank (Trump had raised almost $70 million by the end of 2018, but he’s spending it like a drunken sailor...mostly on rallies).
We’ll see how things shape up as spring turns to summer.
And don’t make up your mind yet - we still have 581 days until the 2020 election.
Who Thinks Winter Has a Chance?
Tom Winter is now running for the U.S. House.
Gosh, didn’t he just run for Missoula City Council in 2017? Yes - he came in third in a three-way race, getting 576 votes to the winner’s 1,923.
Then he ran for the legislature in 2018, and he won that one - 2,869 to 2,829.
The big thing with Winter getting into the legislature is that he knocked out Adam Hertz to get there.
Adam is the son of Greg Hertz, who will likely be on a statewide ticket next year...I’m thinking lieutenant governor.
Anyways, Adam Hertz had gotten into the legislature from the Missoula City Council by beating Andrew Person, someone that the Dems thought would be a good candidate for them for years.
Turns out Winter was the one they should have looked at.
It’ll be interesting to see how he does in this congressional race. He’s smart to get in early.
Actually...he just needs to get in. Currently the FEC has nothing on him, which tells me he either hasn’t filed with them yet, or they haven’t processed his paperwork.
It’s pretty easy to do the paperwork. I did it last year and just sent it to them in the mail. The finance reporting work will be harder, and that’s why Winter will likely get a campaign treasurer, probably after the legislative session is over.
His auditor last time was Barbara Berens, who served as the county’s auditor for 16 years.
For his city council run, he raised over $4,000 but lost. When he ran for the legislature the next year, he carried over the $3,800 he had left over, then raised an additional $20,800 and won.
Most of his donations came between June and October, and groups like the Big Sky Democrats, Missoula County Democrats, and the Treasure State PAC all donated.
Most of Missoula’s legislators and those associated with the money the city doles out donated to him. Here are some others:
- Pam Bucy
- Wilmott Collins
- Allison Dale-Riddle
- Jenny Eck
- Al Ekblad
- John Engen
- Eric Feaver
- Amanda Frickle
- Mike Kadas
- Cliff Larsen
- John Lewis
- Nick Lockridge
- Jorge Quintana
- Adam Schafer
- Hal Stearns
- Mark Sweeney
- Carol Williams
- Fred Van Valkenburg
Those are big names, and that signals to me that he could have a major showing in the primary.
Another way to look at it is...hey, here are a bunch of people that couldn’t win a statewide office if their life depended on it encouraging someone to run for statewide office.
Well, Pam Bucy is the sole exception there.
I guess it really depends on who else jumps in.
Personally, I think he could win the primary if a bigger name doesn’t step up.
But he might be the one the brass wants. It sure seems that way from previous donors. And I doubt he just came up with this idea on his own. Someone in Helena prodded him to run.
Sadly, I think he’ll lose the general and he’ll lose big. I think Matt Rosendale will win this seat with ease. I fully expect Gianforte to announce he’ll run for governor again shortly after Bullock announces he’ll run for president, probably a month from now.
But long-term, Winter losing this race could be a win.
The guy’s only 32-year-old, and now he’ll have a long future in Montana politics. I mean, he can now run for a legislative senate seat in 2022, or even a statewide office in 2024.
Hell, months from now he could realize he doesn’t have a shot at Congress, which will still give him time to switch to a statewide office or PSC position. Or he could go back to his legislative seat, but I don’t think he will.
There will be lots of musical chairs before the March filing deadline, trust me.
He’ll have a lot of name recognition by then, and probably a lot of money in the bank.
Of course, he could stay in the House race, too. He could also turn into a John Lewis, Kim Gillan, Dennis McDonald, or John Driscoll.
They ran in the 2008-2014 U.S. House races, in case you’ve forgotten who they were.
A big reason for this is we never knew who they were in the first place. Politicians are terrible at letting us know who they are anytime other than when they want our money and our votes.
It’s why few have websites of value. Barely any will write out their thoughts each day like I do for you on this site. Most are too scared to do that, thinking the opposition will go after them.
Winter had a site up for his city council run, and like most politician sites, it has few ideas besides the usual stale talking points.
There’s certainly nothing to get excited about.
But I could be wrong - 55% of Americans say that health care concerns top their worry-list, and Winter is poised to make that his main issue.
He does have some initiative, as he has 23 introduced bills in the legislature this year. Chances are good you thought he only had one - the bill to legalize pot.
And he has initiative to run. Dems in Montana need a lot more young men and women with initiative, desperately so.
Currently they don’t have that many, and it’s why we have Dems of yesteryear coming out of the woodwork, thinking they have a shot at some statewides next year (John Morrison, anyone?).
I hope Winter enjoys his big day today. He won’t have many more like it. The media will forget about him, and donors probably won’t take notice for a long time, if they do at all. It’ll be a long, uphill slog after this.
But he’s run before and knows this. He even has a fake Twitter account up, mocking him. Clearly, people knew this man was a threat to them before he even announced today.
I wish him luck.
If the election were today, I’d vote for him. He had me with his common sense stance on pot.
We’ll see how the rest of the state feels. Like I said, it’ll be a long, uphill battle to win that nomination 437 days from now.
Okay for K?
I saw in the news that Don K up in the Flathead is donating $10,000 to a backpack organization.
I sure hope someone recruits him to run for the legislature again, like in 2016.
Back then, he went against Keith Regier in the SD 3 primary, losing by 97 votes.
I’d rather have Don K in the legislature, as I think he’d be more moderate, which is good for Montana’s future.
It’ll be interesting to see how the radicals chew up the moderates when the session is over. I know they already have a hit list, and that means they’ll be trying to primary the moderates.
It’s hard for the moderates to fight back against that. They don’t have a lot of support, and they don’t really want Dem support.
Rock and a hard place territory, there.
The Cruz Rule
Keep your eye on what Texas’ Ted Cruz is doing.
Right now he’s suing the FEC to try and allow candidates like himself to raise more than the $250,000 allowed from donors that can then be used to repay your own election debts.
This is big for Cruz, as the current law allows $250,00 but he had $260,000 in debt from his last run.
Mostly, if this rule change is allowed, rich people can give more money to candidates and you and I will have even less influence in our elections.
For that reason, I’m sure the lawsuit will win and people like you and I will get screwed even more.
Think the corporate media will notice?
Researchers in the UK tested 100 turtles across three different oceans and found that 100% of them had plastic in their stomach.
Lots of people are pissed about this, but they still keep using plastic products.
Still, many are set to protest over the condition of our planet.
The Ecocide Rebellion is set to begin in world capitals across the world on April 15, culminating in Earth Day events the following Monday, April 22.
I doubt many will notice, mostly because the corporate media will pay scant attention to it, if they mention it at all.
On March 27 we got an inverted yield curve.
What this means is that the relationship between interest rates and the duration of a loan is off.
On that day, the interest rate on a 3-month treasury bill was 2.43%, but the rate on a 10-year treasury bond was 2.38%, or 0.05% lower.
Historically, inversions like this have been an early indication that a recession is coming.
In fact, they’ve predicted all nine recessions we’ve had since 1955.
Should you be concerned?
Well, yes and no. I don’t think the markets will crash tomorrow, but chances are good you could save a little more, spend less, and diversify your assets so when the next recession does come, you’ll be ready.
Most Americans don’t have $500 saved up, and they’ll be in a world of hurt when the next one does hit.
Don’t be like them.
Kathleen is holding a kickoff rally at the Yellowstone County Courthouse in Billings this Friday afternoon at 4:30.
What is she running for?
Her fundraising email didn’t say. We do know she has $37,000 in cash still from her last run.
It’s officially called the Kathleen for Montana 2020 Kickoff Rally. Daily Kos had the news on Twitter.
Some figure she’s going for governor or that she’s going to try and unseat Daines.
I think she’ll do damn-well in the primary for either contest, but I feel the general will be a hurdle.
Maybe she’ll go for House again, at which point I think Winter will have to back down. Perhaps that’s why he came out with the news today, though he’s had his official site up for a bit, it seems.
Not to be outdone, Al Olszewski has a statewide campaign kickoff just after noon on the Capitol steps tomorrow. Which office? Great question!
Oh, the dominoes are falling! I can’t wait to see what’ll happen next.