Their ‘Summer of Love’
In Seattle, Mayor Durkin wanted CHAZ to become like Woodstock. Instead it turned into Altamont.
- We’re not living in the ‘peace and love’ days of the 60s. Back then Woodstock was peaceful and free and everyone got along.
- We’re more like the ‘dot-com-bust’ days of the 90s. Back then Woodstock ‘99 was riotous, with $5 bottles of water and fans that started bonfires in protest.
This woke mob is now turning their ire on the homeless.
Last night a New York teen threw a lit firework on a homeless man as he was sleeping on the street. The man suffered only minor burns. In Texas, rioters burned the few possessions that the homeless living in downtown Austin still had left to them.
Housing Mess
We know that many of the rich in the cities are moving out of those cities and to the surrounding suburbs, while others are moving completely out of state and to places like Montana.
These are the lucky ones. They have homes that have some equity, can be sold, and the profits can be rolled-over into a new home, often with considerable savings so you can start your new life with ease.
This will likely buoy Montana’s real estate market through the end of the year. But after that, it’s anyone’s guess.
We know where the home mortgage collapse will happen first. I believe we’ll also see the largest upticks in homelessness and unemployment in these areas, too.
This is Mississippi, Louisiana, New York, New Jersey and Florida...in that order.
And you can tell that people can’t hang on, even if they want to and even if they’ve tried over the past few months.
When someone doesn’t have the money to pay their mortgage anymore, the ledor will usually work out some kind of deal so payments can be reduced or even delayed. This is called forbearance.
In April, 46% of those with a mortgage in forbearance made some kind of payment on that loan.
By May this had fallen to 28% and now in June it’s only 15%.
If the trend continues, we’ll see 7% in July and probably 3% in August.
The only silver lining I see in regards to this coming catastrophe is that the banks have so much money right now that they might be able to weather this storm for a few months.
But if Americans got smart and started to take all their stimulus and unemployment money out of the bank so they could put it under their mattress, then the banks might have a serious liquidity problem further down the road.
Pre-existing Conditions
It’s interesting that, in the time of a major health crisis in this country, we’re not talking about health.
For instance, by now you’ve heard the term ‘pre-existing conditions’ about a million times.
Well...what the hell is this?
It’s an insurance term. It means you had a medical condition of some sort that started before your pre-existing insurance started.
These are some pre-existing conditions, according to insurance giant Cigna:
“Conditions like diabetes, COPD, cancer, and sleep apnea, may be examples of pre-existing health conditions. They tend to be chronic or long-term.”
And how do you get these conditions?
I think most people know - it’s because you didn’t take care of yourself.
- Diabetes? Comes to most people because they eat too much sugar, don’t exercise, and get really fat.
- COPD? Comes to most people because they smoke too much and don’t exercise and then can’t breathe anymore.
- Cancer? This is a tougher one, because many people get it through environmental reasons, often beyond their control. But things like using sunscreen and not smoking can seriously reduce your risk.
- Sleep Apnea? This strikes most people because they’re simply too fat. Why are they too fat? Too much bad food and not enough exercise.
Stupid and lazy - those are the two main reasons why people get pre-existing conditions.
But you don’t hear the corporate news media talk about the reasons people get pre-existing conditions.
I think this would hurt their bottom line. Do you think large corporations want people buying fewer cigarettes, fewer sugary beverages and fattening food?
I don’t.
So even if we get through this current pandemic, another one will come along. It’s not really the virus that’s the threat; it’s our own out-of-shape bodies and their inability to fight the virus off.
If Black Lives Really Mattered
If black lives really mattered then the CEOs in this country would bring manufacturing back to the cities where those black people live.
But the CEOs don’t care. It’s a lot easier to do sensitivity training than to bring the jobs back, and the CEOs will do this. The rioters and protesters will applaud this, thinking it makes some kind of difference.
Meanwhile the Rust Belt continues to rust away.
Most of the rust belt is located around the Great Lakes region, areas of the country that are erupting in violence.
Perhaps those areas wouldn’t be erupting so much if the protesters and rioters living there actually had a job to go to in the morning.
But they don’t. We shipped their jobs overseas a generation ago, and any of the service jobs that were leftover were wiped out by the wave of fear that accompanied the virus.
The black poverty rate in the Twin Cities is over 25%, compared to the 6% for white people.
Nationally the black poverty rate is 22%, so we know the Twin Cities are worse than average.
To reverse this will take years, and lots of patience and community support. Black families need a lot of help, and a great place to start would be to figure out why 65% of black families are single-parent families, compared with the 24% of white families (We know what this looks like in Montana, because Indian homes are 53% single-parent).
Instead of looking at the breakdown of black families, I think most of the black people protesting and rioting will just continue to blame others for their problems.
When to Sell it All?
I keep thinking of the run-up to ‘29.
During the 1920s the number of women that were speculating jumped from 2% to 35%. Prices of common stock had shot up by 176% from 1923 to 1929. At the same time more and more people were trading, from 236 million shares to 1.25 billion. The number of people in finance rose by 400,000. And yet, just 1% of Americans were buying and selling stocks in the lead-up to the crash.
The lucky ones got out on September 3, a day that saw a record 4.4 million shares traded and the value of the market reached an all-time high. A big drop came on September 5 and then a month of minor ups and downs came.
Then the see-saw month of October came along.
October 3 was a very bad day for the market, with steep plunges, but things recovered by October 5. October 17 saw a small rally, but the gains were wiped out on October 18. October 19 was a Saturday, a normal trading day back then, and things went sour, with many brokers getting on the phone to investors, calling for more margin. October 20 was Sunday, and the newspapers “proclaimed the worst was over.”
On Monday, October 21 the week got off to a rollicking start, so much so that the 285-symbol-a-minute ticker tapes got behind, trading was so tense. It was off by ten minutes, something that took away the real-time aspect of stock trading. By the end of the day it was off 100 minutes.
October 22 saw a rally, but on October 23 the market saw the double-whammy of a serious ice storm in the Midwest, one that knocked out the telephone lines and cut off trading for many, as well as the now-typical up and down day.
This led to October 24, Black Thursday. By the time the day was over, the ticker tape was over 4 hours behind. Over 12.8 million shares had been traded. The market had lost $11 billion hours before the close even came, though only ended down $5 billion for the day.
October 25 and 26 were mellow. The 27th was a Sunday and the 28th was a Monday that saw $14 billion in losses. The next day was the 29th, Black Tuesday...the day the Great Depression officially began.
All in the space of 56 days.
September 3 - the high - to October 29 - the ultimate low.
I’m sure a lot of people are thinking this way as they look at their portfolio today, wondering when the best time to sell it all is.
Personally, I’m waiting for just one more rally. And it’ll probably be the death of my portfolio.
How many were thinking the same thing between September 3 and October 29 back in 1929? Probably most.
