Montana Democrats get a massive hard-on when they fantasize about Steve Bullock being president.
Just a little wind has to blow to get ‘em excited, like Steve putting out a statement saying he’d never deploy our National Guard troops “based simply on the whim of the President’s morning Twitter habit.”
Blowing hot air at the base.
Dems love this kind of talk, which is just about any talk that chastises or belittles Republicans, especially Trump.
It’s all part of Steve’s planned, slow-motion 2020 presidential campaign rollout.
Currently he’s campaigning in Iowa, and should be there until sometime tomorrow or Sunday.
And then what?
As of today, there’s 942 days until the 2020 Election.
But Steve’s not sitting on his laurels, waiting for that day to come. No, no, no! Instead he’s using PACs to raise a shit-ton of money.
I told you about this earlier in the week: When you look at the FEC reports ending February 28 for the Big Sky Values PAC, Bullock has raised $508,000 and spent $332,000.
And we still have 214 days until the 2018 Election.
It’d be interesting to look at all the 15 or so Democrats have been put forth as possible 2020 presidential candidates, and compare their fundraising and spending.
Who’s ahead so far, with over two years to go?
When a poll came out in January asking 345 Dems who they wanted, here’s how potential candidates stood:
- Joe Biden: 26%
- Bernie: 21%
- Oprah: 20%
- Liz Warren: 18%
- Someone Else: 15%
But back to Bullock.
I don’t see him being president, nor do I see him getting very far in the 2020 primary process.
And what does that process look like?
We know the 2020 Democratic presidential primary will have 4,051 delegates up for grabs.
An additional 716 superdelegates are free to cast their vote for whomever they choose, regardless of how their state votes.
Here in Montana, our Democratic superdelegates are:
- Jacquie Helt
- Jim Larson
- Jorge Quintana
- Jean Lemire Dahlman
- Jon Tester
- Steve Bullock
Anyways, in 2020 the first Democratic primary contest will be in Iowa on February 3.
- Next up is New Hampshire on February 11.
- That Saturday, Feb. 15, will be the Nevada Caucuses.
- Two Saturdays after that, on Feb. 29, we’ll have the South Carolina Primary.
- Then on March 3 it’s Super Tuesday, with twelve states or territories voting. Big ones will be California, Colorado, Minnesota, Texas, and Virginia.
By that point it’ll be over.
We’ll know by then whether Bullock has a chance or not. And the great thing for Bullock is that he’ll still have 13 days to file here in Montana for a statewide race (assuming the Montana filing deadline is Monday, March 16 that year).
(There are also 8 more states between Super Tuesday and Montana’s filing deadline, Michigan and Ohio being the main prizes).
What I’m talking about is the 2020 U.S. Senate race against Daines.
Bullock will be flush with both cash and national recognition following his presidential attempt, and he’ll be the frontrunner to take out Daines.
Who knows…Bullock’s Treasure State PAC could have $3 to $4 million in it still by that point, possibly more.
That’s a lot better than Daines is doing. For all of 2017, Daines raised $266,000 for his 2020 reelection, and he spent $184,000…though he does have over $1 million cash on hand leftover from his 2016 efforts, and perhaps what’s left from 2014.
It’ll be an interesting race when the two Steve’s finally go at it, three months before our June Primary and eight months before the November election.
I fully expect Daines will win another term, but it’s so far off that who knows?
Should Bullock lose that race against Daines, he won’t have many places to go.
A former governor that can’t get too far in the primaries, and then can’t even get his own state to vote him to Washington? That’s sad sauce.
Steve’s best bet at that point is to have another Dem in the governor’s office so he can be appointed to the first Montana Supreme Court vacancy to come up.
And then it’ll just be a waiting game for Steve, with 2022 and 2024 on the horizon and in his thoughts.
What will the future hold?