When Tester was running in ‘18, he took awhile to gear-up.
So how’s this compare to the way the ‘24 cycle is shaping-up?
We don’t know what he’s raised so far this year, as quarterly reports aren’t due until April 15 and likely won’t be put online for a few days after that.
It’ll be interesting to see the reports for Matt Rosendale as well. Is he going to run for reelection in ‘22? It’s very likely, but then in ‘24, he might try something else, such as a run for governor or for the seat Tester holds now.
- Between 2013-14, he took in $894,000.
- 2015-16 saw him bring in $1.6 million.
- Then in 17-18 he raised $18.6 million.
So how’s this compare to the way the ‘24 cycle is shaping-up?
- From 2019-20, Tester raised $1.6 million.
We don’t know what he’s raised so far this year, as quarterly reports aren’t due until April 15 and likely won’t be put online for a few days after that.
It’ll be interesting to see the reports for Matt Rosendale as well. Is he going to run for reelection in ‘22? It’s very likely, but then in ‘24, he might try something else, such as a run for governor or for the seat Tester holds now.
It really does come down to Tester, and everyone else will follow his lead. If he runs for Senate again, Gianforte will have no choice but to run for governor again, and Rosendale will have to bide his time in Congress for another 4 years...unless he chooses to step down to a statewide, which I highly doubt.
If Tester chooses not to run for Senate again in ‘24 (he’ll likely announce after the ‘22 midterms, if not a bit sooner), then all bets are off.
The likely outcome is that Gianforte will go for his seat, leaving Rosendale and Knudsen to squabble over the governor’s office, with Stapleton likely jumping back in to go for Auditor or, more likely, AG.
I don’t see Gianforte staying in the governor’s office if Tester steps down. He’d rather be safe in the Senate until 2030, and I think he’d easily win that race.
I don’t think Daines would step down from the Senate to run for governor in ‘24, but would instead seek to keep his seat in ‘26. He’d have a lot of seniority by that point.
Yeah, it’s a lot of speculation, but with the pieces we currently have on the board, these are the most likely moves.
A wildcard is the possibility of getting a second House seat in time for the ‘22 election. All the has-been’s and never-were’s will come out of the woodwork for that one, and it’ll be interesting to see who wins, for they likely won’t be running for anything in ‘24 other than that seat they’d just won two years earlier. In effect, yet another piece will be take off the board for one party or the other. For the Dems, such a ‘loss’ would hurt them in ‘24, their bench; for the GOP, it wouldn’t make much of a difference.
