52 to 37.
That’s what Montana Public Radio has the U.S. House race at – Gianforte 52% to Quist’s 37%.
Even if we gave Quist the 3.8% margin of error he’d still be at about 42%.
And if we gave him the 3.8% and gave him the 5% Mark Wicks is taking and gave him the 7% undecided, then Quist would be at 52.8%.
Conversely, if we gave all that to Gianforte he’d be at 67.8%.
So even if Quist somehow keeps what he has, takes all the libertarian vote, and beats the poll’s margin of error, he’d only win by 0.8%.
Hey, a win’s a win.
It’s just that this one ain’t gonna happen.
I put a few comments on the MTPR article on Facebook.
Boy, people did not like that!
For instance, when I pointed out that the Quist campaign has 8 staffers that it pays over $20,000 a month to, one person said, “This is an absurd accusation and completely untrue.”
So I put up the link to the FEC reports, at which point the same person said, “$20,000 amongst 8 people in one month equals $2,500/per person or the equivalent of a $30,000/year salary per person. Hardly extravagant, in my opinion.”
And yet the Quist campaign is losing worse than any House campaign has been losing since Monica Lindeen lost in 2006 (59% to 39% that year).
Remember, Gianforte has just one paid staffer and she gets about $1,400 a month (There's nothing for Shane Scanlon).
And they’re winning.
Another person asked, “Why aren’t the Democrats doing their own polling if the GOP is fudging their own poll?”
I pointed out that “the Quist campaign spent $14,750 with New York’s Global Strategy Group for polling on March 24,” and then mentioned that “I’m betting the results were similar or we would have heard of them.”
The response to that was, “How sad you’re going after Quist when Gianforte is a corrupt and bigoted shill. No surprise there…”
I think that gives you the Montana Democratic mindset in a nutshell right there.
If results come out that we don’t like we:
- Shoot the messenger
- Ignore the results
- Full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes
I noticed that Don Pogreba of ID was also on the Facebook article, saying just “a single student who won’t graduate for a year” did this poll and that “both he and his advisor are connected to partisan Republican groups.”
I’m sure that both ID and Cowturd have some kind of article up refuting this poll, attacking those that did it, and talking-up whatever they can to make their loyal readers ignore reality.
And what is reality?
Rob Quist is losing and he’s losing bad.
Hell, Gravitas Marketing had a poll up on April 6 saying Gianforte was ahead by 12 points.
It polled more than 1,200 people.
And where is Brian Schweitzer?
Actually, where is anyone…besides 80s TV ‘star’ Melissa Milano, that is?
I mean, we haven’t seen any of these people on the campaign trail for Quist:
- Pat Williams
- Kelly McCarthy
I dunno…is there anyone else we can dust off and send out there?
Hell, two of the folks I mentioned are still stuck in the legislature’s final days, one is overseeing that legislature, one is meeting with Trump in Washington, and the other is a long-ago has-been that gave up on the U.S. House, giving MT Dems 20 years without that seat.
And then there’s Brian.
You endorse the guy way back in January and then that’s it?
I heard the other day that Quist is Brian’s placeholder, perhaps someone that can fend-off Gianforte for another cycle or two.
Maybe that way Gianforte will have no other office to run for than governor again in 2020, at which point Schweitzer would cream him.
I’m sure Schweitzer has built up quite the attack plan to go after Gianforte, and really make mincemeat out of him.
This is the kind of playbook that’ll have most Montanans laughing at Gianforte.
Quist just isn’t able to do that.
It takes a certain flair, a certain way with words and showmanship, and an unflinching desire to make light of, belittle, and generally lampoon your opponent…all in good fun, of course.
And it should be fun. It should be a fucking blast!
If it’s not, why get excited? Hell, why even give a damn?
Because when you’re just going through the motions, people notice. And right away they stop caring about you.
Rob Quist is just going through the motions, and has been ever since he won the nomination.
That’s when the MT Dem/Hilltop establishment got their hooks in him and decided, ‘you know what? Winning isn’t really as important as enriching ourselves and our out-of-state friends.’
Or is that not what the FEC reports are telling us?
The next reports will be out on May 8, and you know I’ll be the only MT site that looks into them with any kind of thoroughness.
Remember, the Billings Gazette reporter I called didn’t even think they were worth anything, or that people would be interested in them.
Boy was he wrong.
I’ve had over a thousand people look at my Quist finance report, which tells me they're damn interested.
They’re interested to see where their money is going, and why Quist is losing so badly.
Well, he has a terrible campaign.
He had a great campaign when he was calling the shots.
But then the establishment took over and things went right to shit.
But let’s get back to the poll.
- One thing you won’t see mentioned too much is how 26% of Democrats plan to vote for Gianforte.
- We’re also told that Gianforte has 38% of the Independent vote.
- The poll tells us that 48% of Montanans don’t like Bernie Sanders, while 40% do.
- 74% of Montana Democrats like Bernie, but just 35% of Independents do.
- The poll tells us that Gianforte is likely to take Missoula, as he’s currently getting 55% support there.
- The only area of the state that Quist is breaking 50% in is the South Central/Yellowstone area, where he gets 52%.
- Everywhere else is Gianforte, with Northwest Montana giving him 72%.
I can totally understand why people want to attack this poll – it shows us what I’ve been saying for months now, and even before this campaign started:
Democrats aren’t gonna win this seat.
And please don’t think that some lawsuit against Gianforte over his supposed firing of a worker with MS is going to do anything.
If there was something there, it would have been found out years ago and the man would have won his lawsuit.
Winning this election was never important to the Montana Democratic Party, anyways.
$68,000 – that’s how much Quist’s staffers will personally make when this campaign ends next month.
I don’t know how many tens of thousands the Party will have managed to shuffle to its out-of-state buddy firms by then, but again, that’ll be seen as a win.
Let's not forget the $1 million the DCCC is giving them to launder to their friends.
That’s really what America is all about – enriching yourself at the expense of others.
Finally, let’s take a moment to discuss the North Korean missile crisis.
First of all, we know that North Korea has around 20 nukes.
Next, we know that North Korea would be incredibly stupid to get rid of those.
The only thing keeping the American dogs of war from invading that country is the fact that North Korea has nukes.
And please remember what happens to countries that drink the Kool-Aid.
- In December 2003 Libya gave up its quest for the bomb. In October 2011 Libya’s president was killed.
- In December 1994 Ukraine gave up its nuclear program. In February 2014 Ukraine’s president overthrown.
In both cases American puppet forces did the work so they could set up their puppet American governments.
North Korea knows that. China knows that. Its why both countries aren’t eating up America’s bullshit.
And honestly, we’re the problem.
Currently America does some of the largest military exercises in the world each year in South Korea.
Imagine if Russia did that on the Rio Grande each spring.
Currently America is sending in its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or THAAD.
Sounds a bit MAD, doesn’t it?
So what we have hear is just a repeat of what happened in Cuba 55 years ago.
And how will we get out of this mess?
Well, we’ll pull out that THAAD system, which the Chinese are conducting live drills over and also because they don’t like this system's ulterior motive, which is to spy on them.
This will be just like when we pulled our obsolete missiles out of Turkey in 1962.
Another bargaining chip is ending the joint military exercises with South Korea.
That’d not only save us a shit-ton of money, but it’d create immense levels of goodwill in the region.
Of course, to the warmongers such a decision would reek of weakness, as that’s how our ‘enemies’ would view us.
Still, back in 1962 we ended the Operation Skyshield exercises. That probably went a long way in making the USSR feel better.
And yet the CIA killed Kennedy the very next year. He just didn’t want to play ball in Vietnam, where the military industrial complex had decades-long-plans for drug smuggling and arms deals.
Anyways, the only way this North Korean missile crisis will be resolved is through negotiations.
I think it’s time to send Dennis Rodman back to the country – he’s the only one that has a chance at diplomacy (just keep him away from the booze).
Or we can just continue as we are, which if you own any defense stocks, is probably the way to go.
If you’re just a poor schmuck like me, however, then it doesn’t matter.
Peons like us don’t factor into it, we’re just expected to consume and work ‘till we die.