The polls closed at 5 PM our time and shortly after that the Washington Post had early results up.
By the time I checked, around 10% of precincts were in and it was clear that Bernie was in the lead, with Klobuchar in second. Biden was coming in a distant 5th place, with 8.6% of the vote.
There was still a lot of time for the results to come in.
There wasn’t going to be a lot of money coming in, however.
You see, the candidates had been spending money hand over fist for weeks on end, really - the whole fourth quarter of 2019.
That should be the main story as we move forward: the Dem presidential candidates...and their money - or lack thereof.
Creepy Joe is perhaps doing the worst in this department.
For instance, Joe Biden raised $23 million just in the last three months of 2019 alone...and he spent all of it.
$23 million for an Iowa gut punch. Hell, walk into any bar in downtown Des Moines and a drunk will give you that for a sideways look or a few misplaced words!
$23 million. My God.
Biden’s not the only one with massive money problems.
In the weeks leading up to Iowa we heard a lot about how Liz Warren was cancelling media buys in certain states, waiting to see how she’ll do in New Hampshire. For instance, she cancelled $375,000 worth of ads in Nevada (Feb. 22 is the primary date there).
It’s no wonder why Liz Warren cancelled so many ads in her runup to New Hampshire and after her mediocre Iowa finish. She raised $21 million over the last bit of 2019, but spent $38 million. Going all in, and now she’d down to just a few million in cash left.
Campaigns these days are so top heavy with staff and consultant companies and social media gurus that even having $10 million cash on hand won’t get you too far, maybe a couple weeks.
Now, we know what all these candidates raised and what they spent. From one perspective, running for president was a monumental waste of money. They didn’t win, and in some cases, might even have debts.
Another perspective is that they enriched a lot of political hanger’s-on, staffers, coastal political boutique firms, and of course the media. In fact, the corporate media benefits the most from the candidates’ money, with hundreds of millions spent on ad buys. Most of that then goes to the corporate executives and shareholders. Those former candidates might be rewarded with a corporate media gig, maybe on CNN.
This site lists 300 presidential TV ads that cost $455 million, mostly because the same ad is aired so many times, over and over...and over. Lots of money for corporate.
Americans hate this model, but our politicians and political wannabes will not stop using it. I think the politicians know we hate it, but they’re pressured by the ‘yes-men’ in their campaigns, the same revolving door of political hacks that go from campaign to campaign, year-after-year, doing the same thing again and again and making bank for themselves and their friends in the process.
This is our political system, and both the Dems and the GOP engage in this corrupt, rotten model.
As regular citizens, we’re powerless to stop this model. We’re overworked and too busy with family when we do get home. There’s no time to change the world.
But back to New Hampshire...a state of 1.3 million people that’s 93% white and where most people are over the age of 40.
60 minutes after the polls closed, Andrew Yang dropped out. The most media attention he’d received over the past month was because of his wife and her sexual-assault-against-my-doctor claims.
90 minutes after the polls closed, Michael Bennet dropped out. Many were surprised to hear he was still in the race; many never knew he was.
By 7 PM, around 45% of the precincts were reporting. Bernie had taken a 4 point lead by that point.
At 8 PM, nearly 70% of precincts were in. Bernie, Mayor Pete and Amy. Liz Warren was 10 points behind Amy, and Biden was a point behind her.
What else is there to say?
Conclusion - Where to Now?
The results will keep coming, but I don’t think the leaders will change. At least we know the people of New Hampshire know how to vote, unlike in Iowa.
- In 10 days Nevada will have a caucus, and a week later South Carolina will have their primary.
- Three days later is March 3, Super Tuesday. Over 10 states will vote, including California, Texas, Minnesota and Virginia.
- Just a week later is another date to keep our eye on: March 10, Mini Super Tuesday. Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington. Lots of delegates up for grabs.
We forget that Bloomberg is still a big factor, though I don’t think he’s popular amongst regular Democrats or the Party brass.
Bloomberg has spent $6.8 million on ads in Michigan alone.
Those primaries are just 7 days after Super Tuesday. The Democrats and their corporate media will begin to talk about Bloomberg a lot more as that date approaches.
The main goal of Democrats at this point is to make sure Bernie doesn’t get so many delegates that he’ll become the nominee. Democrats are scared to death of Bernie. The GOP is already playing up our latent fears of socialism, though few Americans can really describe what that is.
Bloomberg is the only one they can pin their hopes on at this point. Steyer and Bloomberg continue to be the two elephants in the room, banking $157 million and $200 million last quarter, respectively.
Mayor Pete brought in $25 million last quarter, and he’ll have momentum for a short time. I don’t think Mayor Pete has a chance long-term, and we’ll learn that with South Carolina when that state tells us the obvious - a gay man won’t be president next year.
Klobuchar has spent a year in anonymity, and I think that will continue after a week or so. Klobuchar raised just $11.4 million over the last quarter, though I suspect she’ll get a boost over the coming week. I doubt it’ll make much difference. I don’t see her campaign going anywhere. The only reason she got any media attention this past week is because the corporate media knows that Biden is done and they can’t imagine having Bernie as a nominee.
Liz Warren is running out of money. She just had a terrible showing in New Hampshire. She’s in dire straits.
Biden of course was taken down in Iowa, and is now a non-factor. Creepy Joe - I’m amazed he lasted this long. He ran out of New Hampshire before voting even concluded, hoping that South Carolina will be more kind to him. Just delaying the inevitable - the suspension of his campaign.
Biden has a lot to be proud of. Forty years as a Senator and two terms as Vice President. That’s a helluva political accomplishment. He’s had a good career.
Alas, that career is now over. Everyone knows it. His staffers are polishing their resumes, hoping that maybe Bernie or Mayor Pete or even the DNC will take them on. The mood of the Biden camp in South Carolina and Nevada must be depressing.
Bullock should have stayed in. At this point, the corporate media is grasping at straws, hoping against hope that someone can beat Bernie. They’ll elevate anyone to rockstar status, as we’ll see with Klobuchar this coming week.
Bullock should have stayed in. He’s got nothing else. There’ll be no cabinet positions.
Last night Trump had a rally in New Hampshire. The event hall held 11,000 and more were waiting outside. All of the Dem candidates combined couldn’t fill that hall for their debate on the weekend.
We know that 79% of New Hampshire Democrats think Trump is terrible and can’t stand him, and that means that 21% would consider voting for him. Supposedly 25% of the Trump rally attendees last night were Democrats.
New Hampshire Democrats this week were a lot like Democrats all over the country - undecided until the last minute on which of these lackluster candidates to vote for.
There’s very little excitement, even less enthusiasm.
Meanwhile, Republicans all over the country can’t wait to hear what Trump will say next, and most would stand in line for hours to hear him say it.