Category: Missoula Democrats

When Will I See You Again?

2/8/2015

I know that government needs money to operate.

I know services and the number of people requesting those services aren’t going to go down anytime soon.

Our roads aren't going to fix themselves, either this year or the next.

Schools can't be expected to have bake sales to fund their operations.

Our college freshmen just can’t spend ten years of wages to get a four-year degree.

I know these things, but I think Missoula Democrats know them just a little too well. After all, they think that taking your money is such a good idea that they’ll take all of it.

Oh, that’s not quite true, but we both know they’ll take so damn much that you can’t take that vacation anymore, or you can’t fly across the country to visit those grandkids twice a year, or you can’t even give to all those charities that you used to. The reason is because your property taxes have gone through the roof.

Alright, alright…maybe it’s not the property taxes. Maybe it is just the tax levies and mills and other fancy names that we come up with so we don’t have to use the word ‘tax.’ That’s fine, I get it – we’ve taxed so much that it’s now a dirty word and we try not to use it. But Holy Toledo – are you telling me we’re going to take damn-near every dime in extra income these people have? And for what?

I couldn’t tell you what we use the money on here in Missoula. See, I think much of it heads out of town, to important people, rich people, people that can tell us how things should be here in this sleepy mountain town. Wonderful.

And that’s why I have such a problem with Missoula Democrats, specifically those in charge of the city right now. They’ve never seen a tax they didn’t like, they never question one that comes across their desk. They never work for Missoulians.

It’s a shame, it really is. I mean, we could talk about our artificially low wages, collusion between employers and industries to keep benefits down, and the growing crime problems we have because we spend money on things we want as opposed to things we need.

But what’s the point? Who wants to listen to that gibberish? No one important, that’s for sure. It’s a shame.

Real Missoula Democrats – when will I see you again?

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Why Does Cliff Larsen Want to Hurt the Middle Class?

1/10/2015

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Sen. Cliff Larsen (D-Missoula)

I don’t understand why Cliff Larsen, a Democratic Senator from Missoula that you’ve probably heard about recently in regard to the feral hog problem, wants to hurt the middle class.

And I’m sorry, but adding an extra cost to my restaurant meals, liquor, and rental cars is hurting me. Well, not the rental cars so much because I can barely afford my own car let alone someone else’s, but damn…booze?

The whole reason I’m talking about this is because of LC0599, which is a draft bill with the short title “Generally revise local option sales tax on tourism laws.”

What does this mean?

You’d have to ask Cliff Larsen that, for he’s the only one that has any idea, besides Mayor John Engen of Missoula perhaps, who I think is pushing for this.

You see, Engen is a money whore, and he desperately needs each additional dime of the working people’s money that he can get. Why?

He likes to sue multi-billion dollar water companies;
He likes to not pay his bills for 10 years;
He likes to build parks for $42 million.

I could keep going, but I think you get the point – John Engen is a money-wasting machine. But Cliff Larsen? Gosh, I’ve met him a few times and thought he was a pretty good chap. Why is he trying to make my life more difficult?

According to NBC’s KECI here in Missoula, we now have resort taxes in Montana in areas with populations of less than 5,500. They choose it, and this has been law for awhile. Larger urban centers, however?

In the 2009 Legislature the idea of letting larger cities choose a local option sales tax failed. The reason? Probably because we had a lot of Republicans in there that didn’t want it.

Thank God!

Democrats in this state have really gotten away from their conservative economic principles (at the same time many have conveniently gotten away from the land) and it’s cost us.

My grandpa never would have recognized some of the clowns we have calling themselves Democrats today, for all they want to do is tax, tax, tax. Can you imagine how that would have went over if he’d tried to campaign on that in the Rocky Boy Reservation? Unfortunately the GOP gerrymandered that out from under his ass in 1993 however, so he was done.

When KECI talked to local businesses in Missoula about the local option sales tax idea, the response was typically that it would be bad. What’s more, most didn’t want to comment because they hadn’t heard of it yet! Considering the Missoulian didn’t report on this at all, I’m not surprised. What happened to that once-proud bastion of democracy? Joseph M. Dixon must be rolling in his grave.

In the news piece, Engen says the tax would mean “millions of dollars a year to Missoula…and in turn this would eliminate the need to raise taxes.” And what items did he say would be taxed?

Hotel Rooms;
Taxes on Liquor by the Glass;
Restaurant Meals.

Many businesses think the incentive to go out to eat will drop, and their sales will do so even more. Engen says we drop the tax burden from property owners and give it to tourists. I’m not so certain of that, but I will tell you, I have very few reasons to eat out now – I’ll have even less this spring, and I’m not alone in that. Is that what Cliff Larsen’s goal here is, to hurt our already fragile service-industry economy here?

What’s exceedingly frustrating is how the Democratic Legislative team from Missoula gangs up with Engen to push terrible policies.

Chuck Larsen should know better than this, and I can only hope that he’s doing this as a gesture of goodwill, fully expecting it to be shot down in the legislature.

And what of Montana’s sales tax future? Just like Nixon and China, it’ll only be one who crusaded against it that finally gets it enacted. The generational vote that I wrote about in a December 23 post will be coming up again around 2020, I figure, and that means gubernatorial candidates from both parties will likely support a statewide sales tax.

Will the voters support it, however, as we saw that neither the Democrat or the Republican could convince them of such when it came up for a vote in…1993 was it?

And since we’ve created an economic condition in this state where it’s exceedingly difficult if not impossible to own a home (mortgage debt accounts for 70% of Montanan’s debt), we know that more people will slip out of the American Dream as the Middle Class vanishes. When fewer subsistence workers (the bulk of our Montana population) do not pay property taxes, how do you convince them that enacting a tax upon themselves to help the richer classes in their best interests?

You don’t, you don’t and it’s that simple.

Both parties should be concerned on this, for the chances of enacting a sales tax decrease with each person that gets another part-time job in Montana. Since that’s all we create anymore here (Kohl’s in Missoula is hiring 100 part-time positions), you know property taxes will affect fewer and fewer each year. Add in the aging population and deaths taking many houses out of the tax base entirely for a short time, or long, and you’ve got a problem.

But as we’ve seen with Chuck Larsen here, there’s no attempt to solve that mess. If Montana truly is bleeding to death because we aren’t getting a varied enough tax income, then why are we only using the band-aid of a local options sales tax?

Because I guess that’s all they think they can get through, dulling our senses so some geographic areas say it’s not that bad, convincing others to go along. It’s a strategy, but not a very good one.

You’ve come to expect strategies like that from Democrats, however, because they have no long game. And that’s why they may damn well convince many of the true-blue and yellow dogs that the 6 bills they get this session were all they really wanted.

God, Montana, we need leaders, we need them bad.

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The Saga of Caitlin Copple

1/9/2015

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Bon Voyage!

The saga of Caitlin Copple continues, and once again we should feel honored to see where this young woman’s journey takes her.

Copple’s journey began in Nampa, Idaho, where she’s a fourth-generation Idahoan…though that wasn’t good enough for politics there I guess. Nope, instead the carpetbag had to be employed, and Copple jumped to Montana and Missoula. First she got a B.A. at the University of Idaho and then in 2007 she got a M.A. in Journalism from the University of Montana.

It was in 2011 that Caitlin Copple decided to run for the Missoula City Council, and she won over incumbent and perennial crazy Lynn Hellegaard by 185 votes (Andrew Person beat Helleggard out in 2014 to get HD 96). She was just 27-years-old, and looked to have a bright political future ahead of her.

Then the lazy-bug crept in. Satisfied to sit on her laurels now that she had her cushy elected gig, one that required a few hours a week but gave a pay of $12,700 a year, Copple decided she didn’t really need to do anything. By the end of 2013, the Missoulian was reporting that Copple had the worst attendance record of anyone on the council, at just 76%. If you go by Woody Allen’s old adage that 70% of success if just showing up, Copple could barely do that.

Of course the reason for that shoddy performance was that Copple had chewed off more of a workload than she could manage, what with her zeal to see Missoula get back on a firm economic footing. That agenda? Training games and some attempts to get broadband in Missoula working better.

Perhaps her second job with the Pride Foundation took away from her efforts at being an elected official. While it no doubt burnished the resume and impressed the LGBT folks Copple was meeting with out of state for a full week each quarter, it didn’t do much to further her future. It may also have alienated her further from the public, most of whom aren’t LBGT crusaders.

You see, for Caitlin Copple, elected office was just a stepping stone. For her, money is the ultimate goal, because she already complained how little she was making as a Councilwoman. Gosh, didn’t you know what the pay was before you got in? It’s not my fault if you have a lot of student loan debt from two useless degrees. Get in line behind everyone else of your generation!

What inspired Copple to run, she told Women’s Voices in 2014, was Hellegaard’s vote against the LGBT-inclusive non-discrimination ordinance (Note to Missoula GOP: Get rid of Lynn – she hurts you more than helps). The incumbent she beat voted against that, so she rode in on the coattails of the discontent so many gay people feel in Missoula.

I am so tired of the Democrats pandering to a miniscule minority of the electorate. Do gay people even make up 10% of the people in this state…5%?

Get real. According to a CDC report from July 2014, we get the following numbers:

96.6% of adults identify themselves as straight;
1.6% are gay or lesbian;
0.7% are bisexual;
1.1% are “something else.”

That’s fine, that’s fine that we have 3.4% of Americans identifying as LBGT or whatever. And if that number is still 3.4% in Montana, I’m fine with that too. In fact, I don’t really care. I don’t think those folks should be treated any differently as anyone else. But when we start spending more than 3.4% of our time and money and attention on that?

That bothers me, I will admit. And as I’ve said many, many times on this site before, I do not care about alienating gay people, because as a Democrat, I know they have nowhere else to go. I don’t pander to them, they pander to me. Do you know who I will pander to? The 15.2% of Montanans that were living in poverty from 2009 to 2013. I’m going to pander my ass off to them and ask what they want and then I’m going to promise it to them, and then deliver. Because I know that in an election, 15.2% means a helluva lot more than 3.4%.

But the Montana Democratic Party doesn’t, and that’s a huge problem.

Copple began to realize that the LGBT crowd was only going to be able to do so much for her, and that elected officials are in fact expected to deliver results. She began pushing for more economic measures, but since she threw in the towel this week, we know the Copple clan has always viewed giving up as an easier route than rolling up the sleeves.

But she’s got Hilltop, and they’ll make everything alright, both for Miss Copple and you. I mean, they did a helluva job with Walsh, didn’t they? And Keenan? I’m sorry if this offends some of you, but another tired Washington hack is not what Montana needs right now.

This used to be a state where what the people said meant something, where we listened to hardworking people and we sought solutions to their problems. It’s not anymore, and that saddens me. What saddens me more are individuals like Caitlin Copple, who turncoat and run when things get tough, as well as the disastrous PR firms that think this is a route to success.

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Thoughts from the 2014 Montana Election Front Lines

11/13/2014

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I headed down to the Missoula Democrats’ meeting tonight. The reason I did this was because Dave Kendall sent out a tweet shortly after the election saying the Missoula Democrats would meet tonight to figure out what went wrong.

Now, you’ll see a lot of people on social media and the TV shouting to the heavens on what went wrong and what we can do about it, but just about 25 of us showed up in Missoula tonight, the overwhelming majority – I’d say 90% - the regular crowd that shows up each or month or whatever. Not an encouraging start.

Nonetheless, the self-flagellation must go on, and it did…though with five minutes of ‘spin’ first, or the accomplishments of Democrats both nationally and in Montana, if you will.

I just grabbed a sheet of paper before going in so I could write down my thoughts, and this is what I managed to put together before we really got started:

Strategy
Message
Target Audience
Selling Point

Implementation/Execution
HQ: Signs, phones
Doors: Burnout, apathy

Impediments
2016 = President
Apathy on our part
Federal/state divide (Montana has always historically led the nation, yet now the nation is leading us)

So that was my short list, my ideas. What did we kick of the meeting talking about? DPQs.

Now, DPQs are…well, I’ve already forgotten, but they’re something to do with gauging how likely a candidate is going to do in a certain area.

Yeah, not real sexy…but we talked about it for a good 10 minutes, like it’s some kind of Moneyball of politics (which maybe it is, but it doesn’t get people fired-up to vote).

I’m terrible with names and couldn’t tell you many people that were there, but most were local precinct captains, or the real get-out-the-voters. If you think of the Whip in Congress and the Legislature as the person that gathers the votes and finds the necessary votes for an issue, then the precinct captains are the people on the ground that find the votes for a candidate.

How do they do this? By taking the message of the party and using it to fire up the base, get the needed boots on the ground to hit the doors, and making those calls and stuffing those envelopes.

Some of these people there tonight have been doing this for twenty years, and in heavily and traditionally-Democratic areas, like Bonner and East Missoula. These are areas that national Democratic heavyweights like Jim Messina know well, and in his case, he would have known them from his time studying the local political scene while running Daniel Kemmis’s re-election bid in ’93.

So this is known, what this area is, and what should have happened. But what should have happened didn’t, and it sure the hell wasn’t from a lack of trying – Bill Geer’s and Dave Strohmaier’s campaigns attest to that.

One thing that was brought up tonight was how Republicans are allowed to act like children in a shopping mall that can’t get their way. They can break whatever toy they want if we won’t buy it, and we let them get away with it. Hell, we buy them a new toy.

When Republicans shut down the government and tell women to enjoy the paltry sums they make and then try to blame the problems they created on the Democrats…why the hell are we letting them get away with this?

One thing I heard tonight that made a lot of sense was a comment that the Obama Administration went into its shell this election. It’s no secret he’s got an adversarial relationship with the media, something that strikes me as odd – isn’t the media so liberally-biased and so controlled by the left that this would be a good thing?

People are tired of Democrats not standing up for themselves. People want year-long message campaigns, like doctors doing public service announcements informing people about their health. Well, let’s inform people about how sensible Democrats are and how idiotic, draconian, imbecilic, and just plain dumb Republicans are.

It really shouldn’t be so hard, and we’ve got the infrastructure in place to do that. We’ve got social media and we’ve got blogs and we’ve got friendly reporters. Hell, it’s so damn easy to manipulate the media into doing what we want, why isn’t it being done?

The Republicans coasted to victory. Maybe it’s that Democrats can’t figure out if they should run from Obama or run toward him. There are accomplishments, like lower unemployment and…well, I’m not sure what they are, and I haven’t really felt them myself, but they are there, damn it!

Again, there’s nothing much to get excited about. If we as a party could figure out some answers to get over this resource-extraction existence we’ve always had in this state, maybe it’d be a start. Because frankly, that divide between Democrats that support fossil fuels and those that don’t is going to rip this party apart at the state level.

How do you counteract that? I’m not sure, but I can’t help but think we need a unified message, and we need it now. The 2016 election cycle started last Wednesday and we desperately need that national message that then trickles down to the state and local areas.

I couldn’t help but think of the following image tonight:

We need to help John Tester take that 2016 Senate and the only way he’s going to do that is if a Democrat takes the White House. We need that person or those candidates running, and soon, so we can get someone to rally that message around and behind.

Again, local is waiting on state which is waiting on national. And when I say waiting on national, I mean we’re tapping on a turtle’s shell and hoping they stick their head out soon so we can get some direction.

This is the wrong approach, and the numbers tell the tale. From the Williams/Williams fundraising dinner in May, the Missoula Democrats raised $19,738.87. The cost of that was $11,668.35, leaving us with a net gain of $8,070.52. Next, or at least over the course of the year, $7,800 was given to campaigns. That leaves just $270.52 out of that Williams Dinner.

There are a few other expenditures here and there, some more income, but let’s face it, is the one major cash-cow for the Missoula Democrats. And we’re giving $7,800 to campaigns? Campaigns need to be giving that money to us!

How many of you saw that image of John Lewis knocking on doors on Election Day? That’s great, but we need about 100 people doing that, and we need to be paying them. That starts on the local level.

How much money will Amanda Curtis and John Lewis have left in their campaigns? I’m not too worried about Curtis, but Lewis picked up just 515 more votes than Curtis, and he was running a full year before she was…or close enough. How do you explain that?

I see a devastating mismanagement of resources here, and I blame state and I blame national. If politics is local, why the fuck are you not putting your money where your mouth is?

Get that money to the front lines, or by God, you’ll see the exact same thing in 2016. And somebody, please go to the White House or the DNCC with a fucking pair of pliers and rip that damn shell off and throw it into the deepest part of the ocean you can find.

Because I saw a lot of frustrated Democrats here in Missoula tonight, and I know I’ll see a lot fewer in 2016…because another cluster-fuck like 2014 and many of us will give up for good.

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Montana Election Reporting: 2014 Montana Election Results

11/4/2014

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2:40 AM (final post): Thanks for reading, everyone! If you’re just getting here, scroll all the way to the bottom and read this post from the bottom up. I didn’t change anything, just added some spacing to make it read better. Enjoy!

2:21 AM: It looks like we could have a possible recount with the SD49 race. All of the Missoula votes are now in, and that means it’s 3,841 for Diane Sands and 3,834 for Dick Haines. That’s 50.05% to 49.95%.

I don’t see how Haines doesn’t ask for a recount on this one. We’ll discuss this race more tomorrow.

Moving on…the final vote for Kimberly Dudik is 1,706 to Gary Marbut’s 1,677, or 50.43% to 49.57%. That means that it was just 29 votes separating those two.

Expect to see Marbut do some kind of challenge on the grounds of the flyers or something like that, anything to get that recount.

And just getting back to what I was getting to with the parks, 18,645 people voted against it and 21,618 voted for it. That’s 53% for and 46% against…a pretty even split.

Lots of people are not happy with tax and spend policies, and this is hurting Democrats. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, it comes down to Engen. Those associated with him will feel the pinch. He’s there until 2017, remember.

I do believe he was acting on Matt Lowy’s campaign in some regards, and perhaps that cost him. A lot of people are mistrustful of the city courts and legal system, however…or would this election not imply that?

Lots of stuff to speculate on. I think that may well be it for me tonight, however. I won’t sign-off just yet, but if you don’t hear from me again, I probably zonked-out.

2:10 AM: I’ve been speculating on the SD49 race and particularly Doug Coffin and Diane Sands. They both were looking to hop up to the Senate and Sands just happened to beat out Coffin in the primary.

Well, it wasn’t even a contest – she got something like 65% to 70% of the vote. Now, if I was Doug I’d want Diane to lose, and right now she’s got the edge by just 7 votes. This is a big money race too, around $20,000 or so at least, I’d have to look it up, but I got a shit-ton of mailers from her in the past week.

That was the whole campaign, the way I saw it – mailers. Was it enough? I didn’t have any Diane Sands flyers when I was knocking on the doors in SD49 today, but I wish I would have.

But shit, I didn’t see any Haines signs!

I’m telling you, it’s what I’ve been talking about for months, and that’s Engen’s failed policies.

Look how much that park bond passed by, just…breaking news!

1:49 AM: Results are beginning to trickle in for Missoula again, after a few hours of nothing.

Kim Dudik has now pulled ahead of Gary Marbut. Diane Sands and Dick Haines are neck and neck. Stay tuned!

1:27 AM: What a fucking mess. Don’t expect Obama to get a whole lot done anytime over the next 2 years, besides a lot of golf and trips to Camp David. Might as well cash in some of that unused vacation time, huh? Maybe start doing some extended college-looking trips for the girls. Why not UM? They’re really encouraging toward women, as many 60 Minutes viewers will find out soon.

Anyways, royal fuck-ups all around, lots of frustration, and Democrats going for each others’ throats. This is when you’ll see leadership change in the Democratic Party as the national level. Remember, I said the next election cycle begins on Wednesday, and people are jockeying for power already…perhaps in their sleep without even knowing it.

The same will happen in Montana. We know who will be on the stage in 2016 to support the national candidate…whoever that may be. It could be Schweitzer, and I can’t help but think this loss helped him, helped him big time.

But remember, we’re not speculating on tomorrow…well, it is tomorrow.

1:10 AM: I just threw this thought out on Twitter, but for John Lewis and Amanda Curtis, it’s gonna feel like you should just go out into the hills and shout obscenities for hours.

Why not do podcasting instead? I did that after I lost the primary and it kept me in the game and kept me limber. Plus it’s good speaking practice, good for coming up with one-liners, and other stuff that I’m not sure of at 1:05 AM.

Just load up Sound Recorder on Windows and delete it when you’re done. Maybe make sure you delete it.

Which makes me think, how many people will be doing YouTube videos from the 2015 Legislature? I’m not sure any will, and perhaps that’s a shame. Maybe podcasting would be better, as there’s no image.

Many counties are in now and it’s over 76% of the precincts reporting. They say they’ll get most votes in tonight, and I’d like to see some more action in Gallatin and Missoula Counties, myself. Will it happen? I’m not sure…but I am supposed to get up at 8AM and drive my wife to work and son to school tomorrow. Do you think they’ll take the bus?

Well, I’ll get up…and it’ll be nice to have my regular routine back, which is…?

This 1:00 AM post is really for the two candidates, and maybe they’ll read it tomorrow or Thursday or in a month. I’ve written over 4,000 words on this blog tonight, and I hope some of you have gotten some enjoyment out of it.

I figure some reporters will read it tomorrow and glean some facts, or maybe some times. It’s a good timeline, if nothing else.

12:41 AM: I’ve gotten a little mixed up when checking the LR-126 and the auditor races. I got a tweet from someone on that but didn’t think much of it.

Maybe I should go to bed, huh?

Everyone else seems to have, although there do seem to be some people in the Capitol. But then they get paid the big bucks so…

I’m not sure how many of them are still there. Many counties are now in, but many of the counties with large cities – cities that lean Democratic – are not.

So what does that mean? Well, it could mean that some legislative races work out…such as that Dudik/Marbut race that really took everyone by surprise.

It could mean that auditor ballot initiative could get closer…although I’m not sure on that.

It could mean that Amanda Curtis wins. It could, but I’m not sure that will happen either.

So what are the big upsets so far?

I’ve mentioned the PSC race many times, I’m upset by the JOP race in Missoula, I’m upset that the Park bonds passed.

Of course I’m big time upset that Lewis and Curtis lost, but everyone kept saying they’d lose anyways. I mean, everyone in the media said it every single day…right?

I really thought that Wheat race would be closer. WTF?

So yes, there are some upsets. What can be done about it? I’m not sure at this point. I’d like to see what the gains/losses were in the Montana House first before I start speculating. I want to see one of those red/blue maps of Montana pretty soon too. Those things can be looked at for a long time.

Around 9 PM in the Capitol

Federal races at around 12:30 AM

Montana Ballot Initiatives around 12:30 AM

12:18 AM: Montana Cowgirl readers will remember Norma Duffy, who ran for HD72 but lost 79% to 20%. I only got 10% in my primary race this year.

Another big loss was in the Monforton/Bond race, with GOP Matthew Monforton taking 70% of the vote to Bond’s nearly 30%.

Remember these races are still going and numbers are still coming in. Everyone was taken by surprise with the PSC race. McCullough’s old nemesis is back.

Anyways, Art Wittich will be going to the House, District 68 specifically, with 66% of the vote compared to Dem Stevick’s 33%.

12:09 AM: The tight Helena race between Republican Joe Dooling and Dem Jill Cohenour looks to be about done. Dooling took 46% to Cohenour’s 53%. Residents will remember the bright green signs on this race. Guess the luck of the Irish didn’t play out this year. There’s always Butte in March.

12:06 AM: There’s just 3% separating LR-126 and 319/693 precincts are fully reported…or 46%. Could people wake up to see that the thing does indeed pass?
(Update: Sleepy error on my part)

12:02 AM: Ha, I knew I was write to put that AM/PM there…you all thought I was a fool.

Someone else that thinks I’m a fool is Heather Wilson for the MT Dems. I guess I called the Wilmer race a bit too early for her liking. Supposedly they were still voting in Bozeman until 10 PM…or 2 hours ago.

I dunno, sounds like someone’s a bit sore to me. We’ll have to keep our eye on this race…but again, if you don’t like what someone says, get a platform and drown them out.

I’ll keep drowning out my competition tonight with this platform…mainly because all the competition went to sleep some time ago.

11:55 PM: Bozeman's Franke Wilmer goes down to defeat, just like the woman she was vying for the nomination for in August, Amanda Curtis. It was 56% to 43%, with GOP Hinkle taking the race. That was a big money race, too. Gosh, the Democratic strategy really went off the rails this year. I’ll have to dig into some of my old philosophy posts and see if we should have turned some corners.

11:50 PM: It’s just past 11:50, let’s take a look at the federal races, with 41.4% of the precincts reporting, and 32 counties fully done now.

It’s Steve Daines with 176,615 and Amanda Curtis with 123,920…or 57% to 40%. Roger Roots took 6,331 votes, or 2.07%. There were 305,866 votes cast…so far.

Ryan Zinke took 167,483 to John Lewis’s 124,428…or 55% to 40.8%.

Here in Missoula, Diane Sands is now at 3,698 to Haines’s 3,734…or 49.76% to 50.24%. I thought Diane Sands would take this race easy, and she sure had a ton of mailers, as I often reported. What happened?

11:42 PM: Darrell Ehrlick, the editor over at the Billings Gazette, just tweeted out this photo of the papers going to press. There’s going to be a lot of happy people in Billings tomorrow.

There’ll be a lot of unhappy people in many parts of the state tomorrow. Already some are venting, like “Mike” over on Montana Cowgirl. I’m not sure what his problem is, but it’s probably a little bit of alcohol and a helluva lot of frustration.

I’m glad I’m writing this blog post tonight or I’d probably be putting my foot in my mouth over and over and over. Maybe I am.

Well, when does the show end? I think I’ll go until 2 AM at least. If you’re just joining us, I’d suggest starting at the bottom of the page to see the earliest entries. Thanks for reading!

11:38 PM: We’re approaching November 5 and the day after the election…technically.

I just asked Montana Secretary of State Linda McCullough how many of the 56 counties we have in so far. She keeps shouting out thing like Wheatland County complete, so I thought I’d ask.

And it is 31 counties complete now, or 55%.

I guess I probably could have figured that out, huh?

Anyways, what else is happening? The big news was that the HD94 race between Dudik and Marbut is within a single vote. Shit, I have to shake my head on that.

Other than that, things seem to be going slower. Twitter is really slow now, with maybe 6 new responses in a couple minutes. We were getting 20 new responses a minute at the height of the night. I guess regular folks have to get up early tomorrow.

11:24 PM: Looks like the Missoulian has a story up on the McDermott/Clark sheriff race here in Missoula, as well as this good image of him watching returns come in at the Depot, a swanky place.

I took a girl there once, and it cost like $60. I remember I rode my bike up there in the snow, all the way from Schilling Street, which is down by Reserve. Anyways, that was the last time I saw her…so, I don’t go to the Depot much.

Anyways, there will be some sore cookies tomorrow, and a lot more than if you just wasted $60 on a girl. What will Josh Clark do? Will he leave the Sheriff’s office, perhaps going over to the MPD, maybe the university…maybe Helena?

I don’t know, I’m sure KGVO will have some stuff tomorrow on the radio around 7 or 8 AM.

Thank you, Montana, for the vote of confidence! I look forward to serving you over the next 8 years! -JAR #JimRiceForJustice #MTPol #MTSupCo
— Jim Rice for Justice (@jimrice4justice) November 5, 2014

11:14: PM: Jenna Heberden snapped this photo of Lewis shaking hands and thanking supporters after he conceded the race in Helena this evening. I wonder what will be next for him?

His wife’s a lobbyist and I’m sure she makes bank. And since the race is now over, I'll just say it - isn't she hot?

Anyways, he can stay at home until the New Year and watch the kids – who he probably hasn’t seen too much – and not take a shower for 2 days at a time.

It’s refreshing, to do that, and I hope he does so. After that? Well, I’m not sure what he’ll do. Will he be one that fades and we never hear from again?

Or will he be like a Brad Johnson, someone that always comes back. You’ve got to have some respect for that man, even if you have none. He’s got a great story. Maybe it’s time for me to get more serious about my Montana Heroes and Montana Villains book. I like writing biography, and he’s got a good story.

Anyways, Brad Johnson is leading the PSC race against Galen Hollenbaugh by 61% to 38%. Wow, just wow! Everyone was looking at Wheat and VanDyke and all of us, all of us, dropped the ball on that PSC.

Now we’ve got an energy analyst on there, and just when they’re trying to go public or something to make up for that damn dam purchase. I hope some people write about this tomorrow.

11:07 PM: Looks like McDermott has 73% of the vote for Sheriff while Josh Clark has about 26%...according to the ticker on the Missoulian website.

11:03 PM: Boy, I hope you have not gone to bed, folks, because things are heating up.

In SD49, Diane Sands is now losing by 41 votes…3,603 to Haines’s 3,644.

HD92 has slipped away from Dave Strohmaier, with his 1,592 to Doc Moore’s 1,826, or 53% to 46%. Damn, Dave worked hard on that one.

Boy, what happened in HD94? Kim Dudik has 1,577 votes to Gary Marbut’s 1,614…or 50.58% to 49.42%. That one’s close!

HD96 is still going good, with the 99 vote lead of Person giving him 51.51% to Hellegaard’s 48.49%.

Don’t get me started on HD97.

3,510 people in my district, HD98, voted. So Curdy will have 59% to Seewald’s 40%. I never got one flyer from Seewald, nor saw any.

10:55 PM: Sounds like Amanda Curtis has conceded the race, at least if you go by Montana Public Radio.

10:53 PM: Things have happened quickly. It looks like John Lewis has conceded the race, and Ryan Zinke made a quick acceptance speech and then cleared out of there, probably to California. The Whitefish party is already over.

I’m sad to see Lewis lose. I really thought of the two races, he could win. But I guess it wasn’t in the cards. Thankfully this Representative position is just 2 years.

10:40 PM: Gary Marbut has actually pulled in front of Dudik, with the race at 1,614 for Marbut and 1,577 for Dudik. It’s 50.58% to 49.42% on this one right now, folks. Mike Miller called it first on Twiiter.

10:33 PM: Shit! Andrew Person is losing his lead in HD96. It's now Person with 1,687 votes and Hellegaard with 1,588.

It looks like Matt Lowy will not be the next Justice of the Peace in Missoula, unless a lot of other votes come in.

10:29 PM: My Weebly browser is getting sluggish on me. Might be time for a short break.

John Lewis is to address supporters in 10 minutes in Helena I just heard on Twitter. Right now he's down by about 24,000 votes.

Amanda Curtis is down by around 30,000 votes with 13% of precincts fully reported, and a 55% partial-report rate.

Amendment 45 on the State Auditor looks to be 116,478 saying no, don't change it, and 113,138 saying yes. So that might lose.

LR-126 has 136,701 voting against, and 103,948 saying yes...so that means you can still register to vote on election day.

I'm glad to see Janet Ellis winning in Helena's HD81 where my mom lives, 61% to 38% on that one.

Moffie Funk has 52% to Liz Bangerter's 47% or so, so the Dem will go to HD82.

Still a tight race between GOP Gibson and Dem Dunwell for HD84, with Dunwell leading 51% to 48%.

10:19 PM: Supreme Court races are good, with Rice at 79% and Wheat at 61%. That means our laws will probably be safe. Damn, we came real close on losing that seat to VanDyke.

$10 says he's back in Texas before the end of the year.

10:14 PM: Fucking hell, who the hell fell asleep on the wheel on that PSC race, and I'm talking about reporting it? Please don't tell me I was the only one that noticed Johnson all of a sudden just coming out of nowhere on that! This is what I posted at 8:25:

8:25 PM: Looks like Galen Hollenbaugh is leading Gary Johnson for the PSC by 7,216 to 5,851...or 55% to 44%.

Well, I just don't know what to say...either about that race or the local media. All night they've been behind on things, especially when that site crashed and they had nothing to report. That's when you start reporting the reporting, idiots!

Shit, let's just move on.

10:11 PM: Here's the latest federal results. It's pulling away, with 10% of precincts fully reported.

10:08 PM: Daines still looks pretty stunned to me, that deer in headlights.

Is Denny there passing the bottle around? Take that away, votes are still being counted!

9:59 PM: We hang by a fragile thread, just these servers. I'll be taking a break to listen to Fox News on the radio, or KGVO here in Missoula.

I'm pretty sure not much has changed since I last listened to it. After awhile many media folks in Montana will go home, probably in the next hour. Then where will you get your news? We'll see.

9:54 PM: In Helena, or L&C County, the race has changed. Curtis has 51% and Daines has 46%. I thought this was the bureaucratic stronghold, the Republican place to be? What happened?

9:50 PM: The PSC race has flipped, with Johnson roaring ahead of Hollenbaugh, 55% to 44%.

9:43 PM: Shared by Thom Bridge of the Helena IR, this image shows people in Helena checking out the SOC results on a big screen, and with lots of lights.

9:31 PM: The SOC website can go down again at anytime, and probably will as the 10 PM news approaches. I'll take a break then to listen to the radio (we don't have TV in our home anymore).

Anyways, smart folks will record results now to Tweet later, as I was able to do when the thing went down earlier. Screen shots work best for this.

Cynthia Wolken is beating out appointed to the race Mike Hopkins in SD48 and she has 59% to his 40%.

Diane Sands has 52% to Dick Haines' 47% in SD49. That was a big money race on Sands' part.

Very tight race for HD92. Dave Strohmaier with 49.33% to Doc Moore's 50.67%. 45 votes.

51% to 48% for the Dudik/Marbut race.

55% to 44% with Andrew Person mopping up like he did in Iraq.

That damn Libertarian Satchfield is costing Democrat Bill Geer HD97 right as we speak. It's 50% to 47% for the GOP.

Matt Lowy is coming back, getting 48% to Andersen's 51%. This one will be close.

Damn parks and trails bond is passing, something that will cost Democrats future Missoula races as people complain about the bill. But we'll save that for those running in 2016 or 2018.

9:28 PM: The SOC site is back up. Amanda Curtis is 43% and Daines is 54%. Lewis has 44% and Zinke has 51%.

4.7% of precincts are fully reported. 37% are partially reported.

9:26 PM: The Flathead Beacon has some good numbers up, to fill the time at least.

9:20 PM: Well, I think just about everyone involved in Montana politics is standing around with their dick in their hand.

I guess those counting the votes down in the precincts and polling places aren't, just those eagerly waiting for them to get done doing their work.

So until then there's not a whole lot to do, but speculate.

Really, why do we need anymore SOC returns? Daines won, didn't he? I mean, that was an acceptance speech, right?

Maybe we should just stop counting the votes and throw the rest in the trash and just go home. Hell, the bars are still open, some restaurants are still serving...why give ourselves the hassle?

I guess that's the same mentality that allowed LR-126 to get so far...at least in people's minds. When the vote came in, that sucker crashed, at least here in Missoula.

Hopefully we'll get some more results soon. But remember, here in Missoula, Lewis was creaming Zinke by 56% to 39%. And Amanda Curtis was up 56% to 41%.

Lots of votes need to be counted. Daines was just tired from talking to real people all day.

9:19 PM: Live blogging has yet to begin at the Flathead Memo.

.@SOSMcCulloch website goes down and #mtnews journalists everywhere freak out! Gah! #mtpol
— Karen Scherting (@BGKarenS) November 5, 2014

Secretary of State's election results page has the slows. Did it crash? Are too many people on it? It's a major problem.#mtpol
— Chuck Johnson (@c_sjohnson) November 5, 2014

How is it even possible that the @SOSMcCulloch's vote returns site can crash on Election Night? #mtpol
— John S. Adams (@TribLowdown) November 5, 2014

9:15 PM: SOC website remains down. People on Twitter are beginning to wonder what's going on. I'm sure in the Capitol the shit is hitting the fan big time, and people are yelling in the hallways.

9:07: PM: Montana Secretary of State website crashes, probably due to too much traffic. I'm sure it'll be back up.

9:00 PM: Here's me voting earlier today.

8:53 PM: Keele Smith just shared this image of around 30 people waiting to vote in Bozeman.

8:47 PM: Steve Daines is currently giving his acceptance speech, talking about hocking babies and not pointing fingers. He just got a big cheer for getting that Keystone Pipeline. I never thought Americans would be so happy to give away oil to other nations.

Oh, and getting a budget. I can't wait to see what happens there. I bet a lot of nothing will get done, like usual.

But remember, for Daines, Montana will always come first, Montana will always be #1. Yeah, I guess that means #1 for the bastards trying to take our resources.

But we'll see. Maybe Daines will be one that goes against those that made him, one that bites the hand that feeds him.

But what am I talking about? Aren't results still coming in? I hope he has to eat these words. Let's see.

8:38 PM: Alright, the HD97 race is tight, with Democrat Geer getting 47% to Republican Tschida's 50.5%. 2.35% is being taken by the Libertarian.

In my old HD98 district, my old opponent Willis Curdy is killing Roger Seewald, 61% to 38%. There was a lot of activity in this area of the district in the past week.

Cola Rowley is beating Vicky Gordon 54% to 45% for Missoula County Commissioner.

There is absolutely no reporting on Josh Clark, which I'm disappointed to see. McDermott has 12,430 votes.

Damn, the Lowy/Andersen race is close. I'd like to see Lowy win myself, and he's short right now. It's Andersen with 9,811 votes and Lowy with 9,219.

8:33 PM: Missoula races are coming are starting to come in. SD49 is a lot closer than I thought so far, but I guess that's absentee. Right not it's 52% to 47% Sands leading Haines.

The HD94 race between Kimberly Dudik and Gary Marbutt is a lot closer than I thought, 51% to 48% Dudik. It's her birthday today, so let's hope she beats out that independent.

I'm very happy to see Lynn Hellegaard is only getting 922 votes and Andrew Person is getting 1,146 votes. He worked hard in HD96 and I hope that gap stays the same, or widens in his favor.

It's a tighter race in HD97 with Bill Geer and Brad Tschida, perhaps because that Libertarian got thrown in.

Sight just went down at SOC so I'll continue later.

New results: @mtforlewis closes gap with @RyanZinke . Zinke's 7K vote lead just cut in half with 24 percent of precincts reporting #mtpol
— Darrell Ehrlick (@DarrellEhrlick) November 5, 2014

8:28 PM: The initiative or ballot issue races are interesting. LR-126 failed miserably...so far. The auditor one - the name of which I'm still unsure of - is closer than I thought. Right now it's 51% yes to change it, 48% no. That could all change.

8:25 PM: Looks like Galen Hollenbaugh is leading Gary Johnson for the PSC by 7,216 to 5,851...or 55% to 44%.

8:22 PM: Shared by Seaborn Larson of the Montana Kaimin, here's an image of the Lewis campaign HQ in Helena. It's at the Exploration Works, which I believe is right next to the old state liquor warehouse, later changed to Publications & Graphics, later to Print Services, and I think they're changing it again.

The place is headed-up by a real dipshit supervisor, one of those types that doesn't know anything but think they do. Anyways, it's also by the Silver Star and the Carousel.

Of course, I could have just mistaken the hell out of the place too. Either way, it's looking a little ho-hum right now.

Reminder: Election results are unofficial until after the county/state canvasses are complete. #mtpol #MTnews
— MTSecretary of State (@SOSMcCulloch) November 5, 2014

8:17 PM: Here are some federal returns, with not too many precincts reporting. Could this be the trend that we see all night, a huge gap? Let's see when Missoula and some of the larger cities get all their votes in. I bet the lines at the Missoula Fairgrounds are still long.

8:11 PM: Shared by Spencer Conlin on Twitter, this is Daines celebrating the national media calling the race.

Boy, they sure fall all over themselves over nothing, don't they? Let's see some returns come in.

I will say that the Republicans have done a helluva better job getting their images out onto social media. The Lewis campaign did a good job. Amanda Curtis? I didn't see anything until the Billings Gazette shared an image of her doing some phone calls. Just some thoughts.

8:08 PM: 0% of the vote is in from Missoula County.

8:05 PM: The Secretary of State page is up and running and right now it looks like 11.26% of precincts are partially reported.

8:02 PM: I just heard on KGVO Talk Radio, or Fox News, that Steve Daines has won in Montana.

Looking on Twitter, I see that CNN called Montana for Steve Daines.

That's pretty depressing, and I think irresponsible, for the race to be called when no reporting at all has come in from anything official from the state.

What happened to that media promise to become responsible after Election 2000?

7:42 PM (first post): So what will it be tonight…shit storms of regret or hugs and kisses all around?

It’s hard to say, yet the election returns are about to start coming in. I’m sitting at home watching my young 3-year-old, Paul. If my wife comes back by 8 I can get some live blogging going – that seems to be all the rage, as if Twitter weren’t enough.

I guess it’s just easier than putting up post after post, as you can just edit this one and re-publish it and voila!

So stay tuned and we’ll see what develops tonight, what the election return centers looks like, and which campaigns are tearing-up because of their success, and which because of their loss.

Comments

Who Are the Best People to Vote for in Missoula?

10/23/2014

Comments

We’ve got several political races coming up in under two weeks, so let’s figure out who the candidates in Missoula are, and which Missoula candidates you should vote for.

Supreme Court #1

Jim Rice for Montana

Jim Rice vs. W. David Herbert is a race that’s been ignored to death.

So what do we know? Jim Rice got onto the Montana Supreme Court in 2001 when Republican governor Judy Martz appointed him. Prior to that he was born in Canada, got his BA in Political Science from MSU in 1979, then headed off to Missoula to be City Attorney for a time, moved to Helena to do similar, then got into the legislature, becoming Majority Whip in 1993.

You have to realize that Democrats controlled the Montana Legislature from 1993 to 2001, so he’s a Democrat, yet the conservative-leaning kind, i.e. someone who can win in a statewide race.

He did so in 2002, winning election outright to the bench with 85% of the vote and then again in 2006 with 84%. So who’s other guy running? I hear he’s from California, and that’s about all I need to.

Vote For: Jim Rice

Supreme Court #2

Mike Wheat for Montana

Mike Wheat vs. Lawrence VanDyke is a race that will be damn close, I just know it…or at least it would have been until the sketchy mailings went out today.

I’ve written about Mike Wheat a lot and I’m not going to waste your time doing so again right now. Nor am I going to waste time talking about ways to trip-up VanDkye or his sketchy corporate backers. I just hope the outfit running Wheat’s campaign can pull it off.

Vote For: Mike Wheat

Senate District 48

Cynthia Wolken for Montana

Cynthia Wolken vs. Kevin Blackler is a race I really don’t know a whole lot about, but I think Cynthia Wolken is the way to go.

In 2011 she ran for the Missoula City Council, Ward 2, and won…something that was rather easy since she was the incumbent. Oh, but remember, she was appointed to that position in 2010 when Roy Houseman resigned his seat, so that might have something to do with her getting 92% of the vote.

So how’d she do in the next election? Well, Missoula City Council members serve for 4-year terms, so she’s not up again until 2015, although if she wins this race someone will have to be appointed to fill that Ward 2 spot.

In Missoula there are two City Council members for each ward, and right now conservative Adam Hertz is in her ward, which says to me that the ward is tilting right (it’s in that area of town where this is possible).

That doesn’t really matter to me – I live in Ward 6 and will have to contend with Ed Childers if I decide to run. He’s been serving on the City Council longer than anyone and I think it’s time for him to go.

Four terms is long enough (16 damns years, really?) and he already served as City Treasurer before that. Plus, he only garnered 58% of the vote in a 3-way race. He’s not secure, far from it.

But I digress. In the 2014 primary Wolken got 1,452 votes to Blackler’s 810…but both ran unopposed. It could be a bit closer in November, but I still feel the Democrats will take this seat.

Vote For: Cynthia Wolken

Senate District 49

Diane Sands for Montana

Diane Sands vs. Dick Haines is a race that shouldn’t even be close. I’ve written about Diane Sands quite a bit and you can see some of her flyers on that old article.

The primary vote was 1,599 for the two GOP candidates and 2,392 for the two Democrats, and I’m expecting those numbers to remain about the same, percentage-wise.

Vote For: Diane Sands

Senate District 50

Tom Facey for Montana

Tom Facey vs…no one.

I hate races when no one else is running – it’s un-American. Oftentimes I just don’t vote in those races at all.

But in this race, there was going to be an opponent, at least until about three days before the primary. According to the March 11 Missoulian, Dick Haines was going to run against Facey but then dropped out so he could run against Diane Sands.

The reason for this? He thought he’d have a better chance against Diane Sands.

Shit, I don’t know Tom Facey very well, but I have met Diane Sands and she can tear you apart if she wants to. Tom Facey must be able to kill with a look. I guess he’ll be able to get things done in Helena, huh? Or else Haines made one helluva blunder.

Vote For: Tom Facey

House District 14

Nick Schwaderer

Terry Caldwell vs. Nick Schwaderer is an outside the city limits of Missoula and is in Superior. So, this race is one that doesn’t really affect me. I will say that Nick Schwaderer is a younger Republican – he was born in 1988 – and I see him on Twitter quite a bit. I also know he wrote the minority opinion against the renaming of the state auditor position.

I’m sure we’ll see more of him later, but in this case it might not matter – there’s talk his opponent is a Republican as well. I think voting for the Democrat Caldwell would be better, but is Terry Caldwell a Democrat? I don’t know. Maybe Nick Schwaderer would be better here…for me, since he’s young and might be able to identify with me more.

Boy, I’m glad I’m not voting in this one.

Vote For: ???

House District 89

Nate McConnell for Montana

Nate McConnell vs. No One

I was a lot more interested in this race when it was Sam Thompson and Lewie Schneller running in the primary. There were some allegations in this race, mainly about yard signs being pulled down or removed or what not.

Still, that might have just been post-election animosity. I did see Sam Thompson down at the UM Homecoming parade, so there’s that.

So now it’s just the one candidate. Remember, I don’t like this. And honestly, I don’t know much about Nate McConnell other than that he’s yet another lawyer running to represent our interests.

I’m getting damn sick of lawyers running this town…into the ground in my opinion. Will Nate McConnell be different? I think so. He has McConnell Law, a smaller private practice or firm. Looking at his site, it seems he’s trying to help out the little guy with medical, family, and DUI issues.

Nate McConnell seems like one of the good guys – which in my mind means he’s not tied up with those tax-hungry Democrats allied with Mayor John Engen. Those folks need to go, and the faster the better. The problem’s figuring out which Missoula Democrats are still in bed with him, and which aren’t. But that’s for future races, with opponents.

Vote For: Nate McConnell

House District 90

Ellie Hill for Montana

Ellie Hill vs. No One

Here’s another race where there’s one candidate, although in this case I’m not surprised. Ellie Hill has been named one of the main people to watch in Montana, she ran unopposed in the primary, and she’s an incumbent.

But will she always be so lucky? Her desire to overturn the Castle Doctrine is a good one, but there will be stiff backlash, and it could cost her.

If she doesn’t have an opponent in the general election in 2016 I’ll be damn surprised. Of course, she could try for the Montana Senate at that point too.

Vote For: Ellie Hill

House District 91

Bryce Bennett for Montana

Bryce Bennett vs. No One

Ah, our third race in a row with no opponent. This was the case in the primary as well, and like Ellie Hill, Bryce Bennett is also an incumbent. But he’s also the minority whip in the House, meaning he’s one of the top dogs.

Bryce Bennett will have a long political future in Montana, if he continues to run in Missoula races or moves to administrative positions in Helena. A statewide race? I’m not sure that’d be successful.

But he’s competent and knows the issues and could do the job. Montana’s just not that accepting in many places. But that’s for another day

Vote For: Bryce Bennett

House District 92

Dave Strohmaier for Montana

Dave Strohmaier vs. David “Doc” Moore.

This is one of the key Missoula races, and it’s important that Dave Strohmaier get that seat. Moore beat out Chuck Erickson for the seat in 2012, and it was a squeaker – 50.5% to 49.5%, or just 45 votes.

In the primary this year Moore got 538 votes on the Republican side while Strohmair got 921 running unopposed. In total, the GOP picked up 861 votes in that primary race between their two candidates, so it looks like this one will be tight.

Strohmaier is from Oregon, got a BA from Yale in Religion and then a Masters from UM in Environmental Studies. He became the chief historian for the Historical Research Associates of Missoula. And unlike the University of Montana, which doesn’t require their Montana historians to have books written about Montana (I’m talking to you Jeff Wiltse), Strohmaier has two, Drift Smoke and The Seasons of Fire.

Regardless, Strohmaier got into politics and managed to get elected to the Missoula City Council in 2006, served for a time, then jumped into the 2012 Democratic primary race for U.S. Representative, where he came in third.

I hope he beats Moore in November, and with your vote he might.

Vote For: Dave Strohmaier

House District 94

Kimberly Dudik for Montana

Kimberly Dudik vs. Gary Marbut is another race I’ve written recently about, particularly when it came to those HD94 flyers and walking cards that were causing such a fuss.

I won’t go back into it here, but I will say that Gary Marbut is probably not someone that is going to be able to work with a lot of people to get things done in the legislature. Well, not things we want to get done.

Vote For: Kimberly Dudik

House District 95

Nancy Wilson for Montana

Nancy Wilson vs. No One.

I know next to nothing about this race or Nancy Wilson. When I first saw this race I thought we had a member of Heart running. Well, that’s not the case, but we do have another unopposed race, so there’s not a whole lot to say here…or is there?

See, there was some weird shit going on back in March, right before the filing deadlines. Nancy Wilson had to retire from her HD95 seat, which she was elected to back in 2012, so she could get her retirement benefits from UM. Yeah, you can’t be a ‘state employee’ for six months after retiring, and since she’s technically still an employee – unpaid, mind you – she had to resign the seat.

The Missoulian called it a snafu, Todd Mowbray filled the seat for her, and then didn’t challenge her in the primary. I think voters in this district know what’s up.

Vote For: Nancy Wilson

House District 96

Andrew Person for Montana

Andrew Person vs. Lyn Hellegaard will be the closest race in Missoula, I’ll put my money on it.

I bet this will be a race where fewer than 100 votes decides the winner, and I sure hope it’s Andrew Person.

In the primary Person picked up 730 votes to Hellegaard’s 603. But things have heated up and there’s been money spent and things could happen. I’ll probably write more on this one later.

Vote For: Andrew Person

House District 97

Bill Geer for Montana

Bill Geer vs. Brad Tschida is a race that shouldn’t even be a contest – Bill Geer has worked tirelessly to get this position and he’s spoken to me about it many times.

In the primary it was Geer taking 969 votes to Tschida’s 785. Let’s hope it stays that wide, around 200 votes. I think it will.

Vote For: Bill Geer

House District 98

Willis Curdy for Montana

Willis Curdy vs. Roger Seewald is a race that I know because I was running for this seat in the primary, but I got my ass handed to me.

I have no idea what happened to Jennifer Cahoon, but I sure would like to see the 535 votes she got go to Curtis so we can have another Democrat in Helena.

I wrote a letter to the Missoulian a couple weeks ago saying as much to the 118 people that voted for me, so hopefully this race shouldn’t even be a contest.

Vote For: Willis Curdy

House District 99

Tom Steenburg for Montana

Tom Steenberg vs. No One.

Here’s another unopposed race, and one I don’t know a whole lot about. I don’t know a whole lot about the candidate, either, other than he was born in Japan but has lived in Missoula for 34 years and was a firefighter for 25 years.

There’s more information on the Missoulian and he seemed like a pretty nice guy when I met him back in January. I’m sure he’ll do well in Helena.

Vote For: Tom Steenberg

House District 100

Andrea Olsen for Montana

Andrea Olsen vs. No One

I would have liked to see Chuck Erickson take this contest in the primary, but that guy just has bad luck, and the deck against him. In this case it was Carolyn Squires dropping from the race back in March just before the filing deadline, allowing Olsen to get in.

I don’t know much about Andrea Olsen, other than she had a shit-ton of campaign signs. She’s a lawyer, but I’m not sure where (hopefully not at Datsopoulos).

Vote For: Andrea Olsen

Missoula County Commissioner District 1

Cola Rowley for Montana

Nicole “Cola” Rowley vs. Vicky Gordon.

I will tell you right now that I’m not voting for Vicky Gordon, but I sure the hell hope I’m not voting for another like we’ve had on the County Commission here in Missoula before.

What am I talking about? I’m talking about county taxes going up, proposals put forth that only benefit those living in close proximity to the City of Missoula, and really just an attitude that voters don’t matter.

That’s what I get from the two women we have on the Commission now. I don’t know much about Bill Carey, but it seems he’s kept his feet out of the shit for the most part, although I think we all know he’s done after this term.

So you really have a great opportunity to remake this County Commission into one that can begin to help the people again instead of hurting them. Jean Curtiss will be up for reelection in 2018 and Carey can run again in 2016, but he won’t. Rowley won’t be up for reelection until 2020, so she’ll become the dominant force for a time.

Smart Democrats will begin to look at this race down the road and figure out how they can take apart Carey’s record and the record of the Commission over the past decade to sail into office. Smart Democrats.

Vote For: Cola Rowley

Missoula County Clerk and Recorder/Treasurer

Vickie Zeier for Montana

Vickie M. Zeier vs. No One.

I don’t really know or care about this race one iota, and I have a feeling most people feel the exact same way. I do know Zeier has had this position for some time, so it’s probably best not to change horses in midstream, which we can’t do anyways.

Vote For: Vickie M. Zeier

Missoula County Sheriff

T.J. McDermott vs. Josh Clark is a race I’ve written on before, both before and after the primary.

Of all the races in Missoula, this is about the only one I don’t know how I’ll vote on until I get into the ballot box and have the pen in my hand.

I think I’m like a lot of Missoulians, and I’m unsure on what to do for this race. I may just leave the circle blank and not vote for anyone. Maybe I’ll vote for Bill Parcell – he was shot in the line of duty, after all, while Clark and McDermott just seem to be throwing shots at each other.

Still, this race really gets down more than any other to the base problems we have in Missoula, and that’s corruption. Right now we’ve got a mayor running amok, a city council more timid than a mouse when it comes to challenging him, and a county commission that too often falls lock-step behind him.

I’ve made it plain I think this is bad, so I try to figure out which officials and candidates in Missoula are good and won’t screw working people, and those that are bad and want to do so all the time.

It’s hard, damn so. My gut tells me Josh Clark is the one to stand up to the County Commission and the Mayor, but I also feel he’s Republican…or have I just been suckered-in by the Democrats’ propaganda?

Like I said, I often think about leaving this one blank.

Vote For: ???

Missoula County Justice of the Peace

Matthew Lowy for Montana

Matthew Lowy vs. Marie Andersen is a big race.

This is another race that’s been in the news a lot, mainly for all the wrong reasons. First there were allegations against Lowy, mainly about getting support from someone that was already working in the office. That was a conflict of interest, and a freshman mistake, if you ask me.

Far more serious, in my opinion, are the allegations against Andersen. After being investigated by the Commissioner of Political Practices, Andersen was charged with knowingly hiding $8,000 worth of campaign mailings.

That’s a big deal, considering the primary race that had five candidates. The top two advanced, with Lowy getting 31.7% of the vote and Andersen getting 34.1%. Or is it? I mean, Beverly Smith got just 15.6% of the vote, so I’m not sure one massive mailing before the absentee ballots went out would have allowed Andersen to get that much of a leg-up on Lowy.

Or would it? Sometimes the only piece of information I got on a candidate in my district before the election was a mailer that went out before the primary. I got one from Diane Sands and I know a good 300 or so people got one from me. In fact, I’m confident a good percentage of my 118 votes can be traced to that mailing.

It’s awfully hard to prove that, however, and I sure did some door knocking too. But my race was way low-scale compared to these two races that were doing fundraisers and such. Could that mailer have been enough to bump Smith’s 2,746 votes higher, getting closer to the 5,985 Andersen got? That’s a difference of 3,239 votes…can that really matter?

Commissioner of Political Practices Jonathan Motl ruled it could be serious enough to have her removed from office. He’s referred the matter to the Lewis and Clark County Attorney, although it’ll most likely result in a fine, or a slap on the wrist, which is less than she’s received before, although her getting fired is pretty questionable to me…mainly because I’m like many and have no idea what happened.

It’s this race – coupled with the sheriff’s race – that has me wondering who to vote for. The sheriff’s race is a bit more complicated because they claim one candidate is a Republican. There’s none of that doubt here – these are both Democrats.

But it’s this law firm called Datsopoulos, MacDonald & Lind that’s perhaps the most dangerous, and needs the most reporting upon…although that’ll have to wait until after the election.

In my opinion the Datsopoulos MacDonald & Lind firm needs to have their license to practice taken away, or at least their business charter or license.

Why? Well, they’re corrupt, and have engaged in corrupt political practices in many of Missoula’s races this year, specifically the sheriff’s race and the justice of the peace race. I’m sure they’d done so in the past as well, but I probably shouldn’t say that or they’d sue my ass – remember, they fight for the rich, not the poor.

Hell, even the editors at the Missoulian hint at their corruption. And for Datsopoulos, it’s a classic Catch-22 – they're either corrupt or they're so incompetent they can’t do their job correctly. Either way, do you want them representing you?

Motl said they’ll probably have to register as a political committee if they support candidates in the future. They seem shady to me, and I know I’m not the only one.

So I’ll vote for Lowy in this race, as I did in June.

Vote For: Matthew Lowy

Conclusion

I hope you enjoyed this 3,400 word analysis of the Missoula Democrats and Missoula political races in 2014.

Maybe you even liked my analysis of where the Democrats are headed, or where they need to head if that political machine – controlled by the Democrats and which stifles Democracy in this town – is to be broken.

Thanks for reading, and I hope you can share this with some of your friends…and tell them to vote on November 4.

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Montana’s House District 94 and the Political Flyer Drama

10/21/2014

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Perhaps you’ve heard by now about the fuss going on in Missoula’s House District 94 race.

The Missoulian reported on October 11 that incumbent HD94 Representative Kimberly Dudik was not using the correct Democratic donkey symbol on her political mailers, but a knock-off donkey symbol, one that would confuse voters as to her party and perceived political loyalties.

The charges were brought by Dudik’s opponent in the race, Independent and former-Republican, Gary Marbut. Many will also remember Marbut as one often labeled as a crazy gun-nut that was responsible for the Castle Doctrine being passed, a law which has brought a lot of ills to many, and which is most likely going to be directly challenged by Missoula’s Rep. Ellie Hill next session.

Already there are now 35 comments on the original article bringing these serious charges forth, and I was the first to comment upon it, which you can see here:

This is what I would ball a 'bullshit comment,' one designed to make people look stupid.

Thankfully people in high places were listening and investigations began. The issue was again brought up on October 20, this time to say that Montana Commissioner of Political Practices Jonathan Motl had decided on the case.

So what the hell happened, what was the outcome, and what does this mean for the future of our democracy?

Let’s get to the bottom of it, shall we?

Straight from the Donkey’s Ass

Besides that initial report, I made a comment on the October 20 article and that got me an email from Gary Marbut. Why? Well, I mentioned that I’d like to see both sides of these mailings by Kim Dudik to see how bad they really are. Thankfully he complied, and here are both sides:

Kimberly Dudik in Missoula

Kim Dudik Missoula

Alright, they look pretty straightforward to me, a lot like the old mailers I used to have. But of course the real problem is that logo down there, that kind of weird-looking donkey. Let’s zoom in:

I can see where a lot of the confusion lies, mainly in three areas:

First, this seems to be not a donkey at all, but some kind of otherworldly creature, one that doesn’t require it’s head to be attached to its torso;

Next, it appears capable of standing on but two legs…unless you assume the bottom is really the top. In that case, it looks awfully like a crocodile mouth sprouting from…I’m just not sure, but not a donkey;

Finally, there’s a strange comet or star shooting straight out of the donkey’s ass or stomach or something. It really is hard to describe what that is.

Another point of contention is that there are two separate donkey’s, the one we just saw and this second one that’s a slightly different color and doesn’t have the star shooting from its ass.

So how common are these creatures, and are other Democrats using them?

I did a quick search of Democratic donkey’s on Google and found the following:

As you can see, there’s no image like the one Kimberly Dudik is using here in Missoula. So I took it a step further and check out the image search feature, giving me this:

Ah, there it is…right there on the top row, fifth from the right. That looks awfully similar, and after hovering over it I discover it’s actually on Wikipedia! Let’s take a look at that page:

Well lo and behold, it’s the Democratic Party’s page! But where’s that image? Let’s scroll down:

Ah, there it is…right there under the regular donkey…and what’s that caption say? Oh yeah, “the Democratic donkey party logo in a mondernized ‘kicking donkey’ form.”

Shit, it looks like that’s that, folks – this donkey is just modern and newfangled and everything else that goes with modernity and the problems it brings. Candidates like Kim Dudik might try to push us into the future instead of keeping us clinging to old ideas and beliefs. Is that what you want?

I’m not sure this issue will die. Since the donkey is on Wikipedia we know it could have been tampered with. That could have been added after October 11 in anticipation of Motl’s investigation.

No, I don’t think we’ve heard the last of this issue, or seen the last lame attempt of a candidate to get free media. So if you’re voting on November 4 in House District 94, I’d advise you to vote for the common-sense party, the Democrats and Kimberly Dudik.

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Diane Sands Means Business for Missoula’s Senate District 49

10/21/2014

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If you’re not living in Senate District 49 here in Missoula then you’re missing out on some of the most potent political mailers in the state.

Yep, I’m talking about the race between Rep. Diane Sands and former Missoula City Council member, Dick Haines.

I’ve met both candidates and I’ve mentioned this before, back in early September when I wrote about the Busy Political Mailing Day in Missoula. At this point I’ve received about 3 to 4 pieces of mail from Diane Sands and just one from Dick Haines. And that’s not good...for him.

Most of the time Diane depicts a great image, like in this mailer here:

Diane Sands Montana

She’s a smart woman, and she knows the issues that are important to people, and that’s jobs. It’s not abortion or Obama or guns, it’s the ability to put food on the table.

Diane Sands Missoula

The flip side of that mailer has lots of good information about Diane Sands in Montana. This is a really feel-good mailer that makes you want to vote for this woman that knows the issues you face.

Now let’s get to the mailer I got on the same day or about then. This one is just great political gamesmanship and maneuvering right here, folks.

Dick Haines Missoula

What I love about this mailer is that you won’t find Diane Sands’ name on it anywhere. It’s paid for by the Montana Democratic Party and the treasurer listed is James Scott Wheeler.

Well who the hell’s that? Who knows…who cares…that’s the point. No one’s going to go digging, not when I’ve got that young boy suffering because of the policies put into place by Dick Haines. Don’t ask me what those policies are – you’d have about as much luck getting ‘em out of me as you would with that young boy there – but I know they’re bad.

How do I know that? Well shit – just flip the thing over!

Dick Haines Montana

I don’t know why that Dick Haines is standing in the way of hardworking people. Well, he’s probably not. I’ve met Dick Haines and he seems like a nice guy, but he’s not going to be able to stand up against the juggernaut that’s the Diane Sands campaign.

I’ve met Diane Sands and I’ve watched her in a room. She’s good, she knows how to work people, make friends, and get what she wants. I’m glad she’s on my side, because I’d hate to have her against me.

On the flip side, I doubt there are as many in the legislature that can go toe-to-toe with Diane Sands when it comes to a debate. And when it comes to women in the legislature, she might be on the top when it comes to effectiveness.

Who is Dick Haines in Missoula?

This mailer I got just today and it got a bit rained on, but the message is clear just by looking at it – Dick Haines makes it tough for you, Dine Sands helps you work.

Who is Diane Sands in Montana?

I’m glad to see this one has both candidates on it, because honestly, this campaign was getting a bit rough even for me.

These are damn good political mailers and I feel future Montana political candidates can learn a lot from them, and from Diane Sands.

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Super Secret Democratic State Meeting Scheduled

10/15/2014

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I’ve got breaking news that a Big Sky words tipster sent in.

It appears there’ll be a super secret Democratic state meeting or semi-convention tomorrow, October 16, at the Sky Range Ranch just outside of Missoula.

From what I was able to glean from sources, this Montana Democratic stronghold is located at 8925 LaValle Creek Road, which puts it right here on the map:

Look how close they are to that Flathead Reservation up there…so close you can almost touch it. Something big is going on, I can tell.

Here’s an earth satellite image of the location, which gives you an idea of how remote and out of the way it is:

Let’s zoom in closer and see if we can pinpoint any obstacles that might confront someone trying to infiltrate this exotic retreat:

It’s clear the place is remote and nearly inaccessible. It’s jutting off of some larger installation, the purpose of which I haven’t been able to discern yet. It looks like this:

That could be anything, and there could be further installations underground that we don’t even know about.

What we do know is who will be there, and it looks like this:

Governor Steve Bullock;
U.S. Senator Jon Tester;
Commissioner of Securities Monica Lindeen;
OPI Superintendent Denise Juneau;
Secretary of State Linda McCulloch;
Former U.S. Rep. Pat Williams;
State Senator Cliff Larsen;
State Senator Dick Barrett;
State Senator Tom Facey;
Rep. Bryce Bennett;
Rep. Kimberly Dudik;
Rep. Diane Sands;
Missoula City Council members Marilyn Marler, Jason Weiner, and Emily Bentley;
Missoula Mayor John Engen;
MEA-MFT president Eric Feaver.

Damn, this is the big leagues, all the top brass, gathered together in one place. There’s also some miscellaneous candidates thrown in for good measure.

What could happen? What diabolical plots could they be un-hatching up there in the mountains, away from it all, on that secluded ranch? Dare you think about them lest you get no sleep tonight?

I don’t want to think about it myself…although I have a sneaking suspicion it’s all just an elaborate front, a cunning ruse and cover job for a John Lewis fundraiser.

I could be wrong, and this could be the secret meeting that seals our fate with Ebola in Montana, the rise of socialism, and the progressive takeover of your way of life so wolves can eat in restaurants and transients can sleep in the Mariott.

But something tells me that’d be Republican hysteria, paranoia, fear, and just plain ignorance speaking.

Perhaps what’s interesting is who’s not attending. There’s…well, I’m not going to speculate on it. And I also won’t speculate on the power and force that this group of folks would have if they, instead of standing around in an elaborate ranch retreat, instead had a meeting in Caras Park in Missoula.

Dunk Tank Your Congressman - $25

You could set up all kinds of crazy-shit festivities like mud wrestling, dunk tanks, fire eaters, taco trucks, coal walking and face painting. I’d charge people $10 to argue with an elected official for 1 minute. In one hour, with that list of people, you could potentially make $10,200…which I bet is a lot more than they’ll pull in up there in the hills.

Maybe not, I don’t know…they don’t know…who knows?

Click for directions to this secret Democrat stronghold in Montana

This is the house, the best picture of it I could get. Something is happening there beginning tomorrow afternoon around 4:30 PM.

Remain vigilant.

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Analyzing Fast Response Messages from Montana’s Political Campaigns

10/15/2014

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"Battlefield" - A painting by Richard Mac Tir showing king Bård overlooking a battlefield

You’ll see it on Twitter, the front lines of the political battlefield, and you’ll see it there first.

I’m talking about the message, of course, or at least what’s passing for it at this particular moment – now – which is awfully hard to tell when you’re in the thick of it, bullets are flying, and the fog of war is concealing much if not all.

So we step back from time to time, to the rear where the decisions are made and analysis can take place. Sometimes that happens from horseback on a hill overlooking the carnage, other times it’s thousands of miles away in some semi-underground ‘bunker.’

Either way, that “message” has to be figured out, and the forces have to be marshaled for a victory.

Let’s begin.

Dick Haines Missoula

This is a piece of mail I got today, one talking-down Dick Haines for SD49. It’s pretty hard-hitting and you can tell his opponent wants to win.

Dick Haines in Montana

So who is his opponent? You can’t tell at all from the mailer, even the backside that you see here. I’ll tell you it’s Diane Sands, and she’s been raising some serious money for this race. I’m thinking it’ll be in the 60%-40% range on this race, with Hines taking up the rear.

What can I say – women in Montana are tough and speak their minds, especially when they want something. That’s why I try not to piss women off (unlike Republicans always want to do), but maybe I pushed the line a bit with this Tweet earlier today:

Steve Daines More Jobs

Yep, it’s got that nostalgic feel, kind of what Republicans want for society. They’ve already got women in Montana making about $0.68 for every $1 a man gets, so getting them back into the kitchen full-time shouldn’t be a huge jump.

Steve Daines jobs plan

The 70s was damn near as good for corporate America as the 50s, and I guess that’s what I was going for in this one, which outlines the Steve Daines job plan.

These were simple tweets I put out early in the morning as people sat down to work, or at least the appearance of such. I just took some photos off Google after typing “woman in the kitchen,” then stuck it in MS Paint and found a way to get some text in there so you can read it.

It’s a pretty simple process, and many people on Twitter are doing it, and I want to look at that today. I also want to look at some of the more fancy stuff, which is bought and paid for with that Koch Brothers and other Wall Street money flowing into the Daines campaign.

He also gets social media marketers with that, and they can put out slick stuff like this:

Steve Daines, not wearing his usual plaid = not in Montana (click for proof)

This is a damn good tweet right here. It’s got a lot of info that’s hard to see, that’s true, but it’s specialized for local geographical areas, ensuring that if Twitter users have friends close by, this will be shared.

I bet hundreds of people saw this, if not a thousand or two. It’s a damn good message, and I wish the Democrats were doing something like it.

Here’s another one put out by Steve Daines, or at least the Daines campaign. It’s always hard to tell who actually has their hand on the ‘ol Twitter machine, but in this case it doesn’t really matter.

Again, this is a good Tweet. It’s simple and effective and targets the base. I’m sure tweets like this turn out some of the people in the photos you see of volunteers at call centers. So in that regard, this is social media being used to target younger voters who want to be active. They’re then corralled into the call centers or mail centers where they can then touch more voters of a different demographic group. It’s good politics, with just a slight tweak to bring it into the 21st-century.

Steve Daines looking smug

Here’s another one from Daines, the same message: get your ass out and volunteer and vote and this is what you need to know to do it. This is going right out to the faithful and they’ll vote, if many haven’t already done so by absentee ballot.

New Zinke land policy

Alright, let’s get back to old-school. This is a photo I found on a Google search and then I put that white text up there, which was just copied from the Montana Democratic website.

It’s a great tweet, it targets the base, and it was on the Twitter photo roll all day, right on the main #mtpol page.

Sometimes you get a photo up that stays there all day and you try and tweet your own photos but the damn thing just will not go away no matter what. I was trying to do that the other day when this hippy girl photo was up, but I couldn’t get rid of the damn thing to save my life.

LR126 in Montana

No, this isn’t the hippy girl, but it is a fun tweet that will excite young voters. It’s funny, not taking itself too seriously, and uses sarcasm and absurdity to make a point – people should be able to vote on the day of the election. It also appeals to gay voters, as that rainbow color can only mean one thing in politics.

Amanda Curtis and evironment

Now, remember that ad I showed with Zinke looking sad and the white text next to him? I wasn’t able to find any good spot to put text on this photo of Amanda Curtis, so I just tweeted it out saying she supports our lands. Not very effective.

John Lewis probably ran into the same problem with this tweet, which I have to say looks awful. I’ve done some like this on Google+ in my writing groups, and it just doesn’t work.

John Lewis and public lands

This one right here, however, kicks ass. You can see the contrast between working with the background and fighting it. And these are so simple and easy to put together, and they get liked and retweeted quickly.

It’s just a small part of the campaign message getting out to people. It’s probably not as effective as face-to-face, but maybe it’ll get someone

John Lewis and Lands

Here’s one I took off Facebook from the John Lewis page and just retweeted. The reason I did that was because I saw a bunch of Zinke BS come down the pike and I wanted to put something up real quick to counter that.

But for what? Who the hell am I talking to on Twitter? I think a lot of the time it’s just preaching to the converted. And that’s why you want to get the converted to start working for you.

Mike Wheat Vietnam

Here’s a great tweet from Montana Cowgirl, the leading political blogger in Montana. This is for Mike Wheat for the Montana Supreme Court and it’s a great tweet. It’s got a compelling image with none of that modern airbrushing crap, and the text is large.

Here’s a tweet from someone that tweets a lot about forest issues. This is a toss-up tweet. First, it has a great image, but you can’t see it that well. Next, it’s got a lot of words. Finally, I just think it’s bombarding people with too much.

Koch brothers in Montana

The contrast of that is this tweet sent out by those Koch Brothers Americans for Prosperity outfit. This is a good tweet, it’s easy to read, but full of BS. Like most Koch stuff, it really says nothing.

SEO and political campaigns

You’ll want to say a lot, including with your images for Google. That’s why I name mine things that people will actually search for on Google, hopefully leading back to my site, and my message.

But we’ll talk about doing that at another point. Until then, happy tweeting!

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When Will I See You Again?

Why Does Cliff Larsen Want to Hurt the Middle Class?

The Saga of Caitlin Copple

Thoughts from the 2014 Montana Election Front Lines

Montana Election Reporting: 2014 Montana Election Results

Who Are the Best People to Vote for in Missoula?

Supreme Court #1

Supreme Court #2

Senate District 48

Senate District 49

Senate District 50

House District 14

House District 89

House District 90

House District 91

House District 92

House District 94

House District 95

House District 96

House District 97

House District 98

House District 99

House District 100

Missoula County Commissioner District 1

Missoula County Clerk and Recorder/Treasurer

Missoula County Sheriff

Missoula County Justice of the Peace

Conclusion

Montana’s House District 94 and the Political Flyer Drama

Straight from the Donkey’s Ass

Diane Sands Means Business for Missoula’s Senate District 49

Super Secret Democratic State Meeting Scheduled

Analyzing Fast Response Messages from Montana’s Political Campaigns

2014 Montana Election Blog

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