I’d like to see her mop the floor with Daines, but I also don’t stand in the mirror telling myself bald-faced lies.
Let’s be perfectly honest here – Amanda Curtis has some serious problems, though they aren’t really her own fault.
- First, she’s got little money. Now, as James Connor mentioned yesterday, Curtis has raised $110,000 - $25 of that is mine – so that’s a great start. But is it enough?
- Next, no one knows her. This one has been said a lot, and I’m dang glad to see Curtis in the news each day…on TV, the newspaper, and online. This problem is being solved now.
- Finally, she’s a Democrat. Yeah, that might just be the nail in the coffin, and something she can’t do anything about. Let’s explain below.
I have to say I like Amanda Curtis’s Democratic stance, coming out swinging, not pulling punches, and telling people the truth – that Republican policies ruin this country, or at least the idea of what it once was.
But in Montana people hate Democrats right now, mainly because of Obama, healthcare, and overseas issues involving Iraq and other places we should never have been.
This sucks. I’ve written about it before, and I’ve angered many Democrats. But I simply will not apologize for trying to think of how young people will pay for Obamacare instead of lying to them and telling them it’s the answer to their prayers. It’s not – it’s the answer to many older people’s prayers.
Daines was on TV the other day, standing in a field, and saying he won’t do anything to change his campaign. Well, he doesn’t need to!
Looking at the 2014 Montana Primary, 132,625 people voted for the GOP in the Senate Primary, and just 75,991 voted for the Democrats.
Where are those other 56,634 votes going to come from? Let’s hypothesize:
- Students: If Curtis can turn out those universities she could get 10,000 to 20,000 extra votes. We’ve got UM, MSU, UM Northern, Dillon…there are votes there. This is where Senator Jon Tester might be able to help – he turned them out before and could at least offer tips or organizational support.
- Old Folks: Obamacare can benefit seniors. I just got done writing a 20,000 word book on how seniors can use Obamacare to make their lives better, so I know a lot about this. If the Montana Democratic Party will start directing resources at informational campaigns aimed at older voters, they might be able to peel some off. Let’s say 5,000 votes here.
- State Workers: The State of Montana is one of the largest employers in the state, with around 15,000 workers or so. Most are in Helena and most are Republican. But not all, and a campaign to raise their wages, treat them better, and other things that Republicans ignore could garner up to 3,000 extra votes.
- Outdoorsmen: Environmentalists can go jump in a lake as far as I’m concerned, and when they dry off they can vote for Curtis. It’s that or stay home, because they ain’t voting for Daines. But outdoorsmen and recreationalists might vote for Daines, unless Curtis can take the Brian Schweitzer strategy and peel many of them away by appealing to their environmental proclivities without saying the dreaded e-word. I see 10,000 votes here.
- Tea Party: Eventually the Tea Party will split and members will go to both parties. Curtis could expedite this by appealing to many of the sensible Tea Party platform planks, such as reducing the overall size of government, reducing our deficit, and promoting civic responsibility. I know Curtis has already said reducing the deficit is not important, and I think this is a huge mistake. Convince Montanans that’s important to you and you could have an extra 2,000 votes.
So how many votes is that now? Looks like between 30,000 and 40,000 votes. Amanda Curtis would still need to get between 26,634 and 16,634 votes to beat Daines.
Gosh, that’s tough. How’s she going to win? I don’t know. I sure hope those running her campaign have some great ideas or a shit-ton of money coming in. Again, both of those things might not be enough.